[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011052
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Aug 1 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Tropical Atlantic (Invest AL96): A 1014 mb low pressure
is centered near 24.5N54.5W or about 610 nm northeast of the
northern Leeward Islands, moving NW at 10 to 15 kt. Disorganized
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within
240 nm of the center in the northeast quadrant and 310 nm
southeast quadrant. Strong to near-gale force winds accompany the
low, mainly in the E semicircle, with seas 9 to 12 ft. Environmental
conditions still could support tropical cyclone formation during
the next few days while the system moves northwestward and then
northward over the central subtropical Atlantic. Formation chance
through 48 hours is medium. Please read the latest NHC Tropical
Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave axis is located along 22W from
08N to 22N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is
occurring with this wave due to the presence of dry Saharan dust.

A central Atlantic tropical wave axis is located along 40/41W from
04N to 21N, moving W at 20 to 25 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is observed from 06N to 10N between 34W and 41W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave axis is located along 70W from
the Dominican Republic to western Venezuela, moving W at 15 kt.
No significant convection is seen in association with this wave.

A western Caribbean tropical wave axis extends along 87W from
Tulum, Mexico southward through western Honduras and into the east
Pacific, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and tstorms
are noted over the Gulf of Honduras.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near
21N16W through the Cabo Verde Islands near 16N24W to 08N45W. The
ITCZ continues from 08N45W to 06N54W. In addition to the
convection described in the Tropical Waves section, scattered
showers are observed from 07N to 10N between 44W and 51W.
Scattered moderate convection is observed within 210 nm of the
coast of Africa from 05N to 11N between 10W and 17.5W.

A portion of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends
across the SW Caribbean, generating scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection from 10N to 12.5N between 76.5W and the
coasts of southern Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends over the north-central Gulf from
Apalachicola, FL to 28N92W. The surface trough is inducing
scattered showers and isolated tstorms from 27.5N to 29N between
90W and 93W. An upper-level low centered over western Cuba is
inducing scattered tstorms over the SE Gulf from 22.5N to 25N
between 84W and 90W. The weather pattern is quite benign across
the basin as a weak ridge dominates the sensible weather. Winds
are gentle with 1 to 2 ft seas.

For the forecast, weak surface ridging will stay in place over
the next few days, supporting gentle to moderate winds over most
of the basin. A thermal trough will emerge off the Yucatan
Peninsula and will produce nightly moderate to fresh winds by the
middle to latter part of the week. High pressure will shift SE
into the east Gulf today and Wed and allow for moderate return
flow to develop across the W Gulf Wed night through Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough sections
above for information on the tropical waves moving across the
Caribbean and convection in the southwestern Caribbean Sea. No
additional major areas of showers or thunderstorms are seen, other
than the activity described in those two sections, above.

Fresh easterly trade winds prevail in the central and west-central
Caribbean with 5 to 7 ft seas. Winds are moderate in the eastern
Caribbean with 3 to 5 ft seas. Winds are gentle in the NW
Caribbean with 2 to 4 ft seas.

For the forecast, a 1014 mb low pressure near 24.5N54.5W is
disrupting Atlantic ridging N of the area. This will support fresh
to locally strong trades in the south-central Caribbean, and
moderate to fresh winds elsewhere in the central Caribbean through
most of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
Invest AL96 well NE of the Leeward Islands that has potential for
tropical cyclone development.

Scattered moderate convection is occurring N of 27N between 64W
and 80W in association with upper-level divergence due to an
upper-level trough in the area. Isolated thunderstorms prevail
farther south across the northwest Bahamas, due to a surface
trough that extends from 30N76W to Key West, FL. A surface ridge
extends from 31N59W to 26N70W to south-central Florida. West of
60W, gentle to moderate winds prevail north of 23N with seas 2 to
5 ft. Moderate to fresh trades with seas up to 5 ft are occurring
north of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage.

A 1029 mb subtropical high pressure centered near 35N36W extends
surface ridging across the subtropical eastern Atlantic. South of
the ridge, fresh trades and 5-8 ft seas prevail from 16N to 29N
between 20W and 50W. The gradient between the Azores high and
lower pressure over Africa is supporting fresh to near gale force
N to NE winds and 6 to 10 ft seas from the coast of Morocco
through the Canary Islands.

For the forecast, 1014 mb low pressure near 24.5N54.5W is moving
northwestward. Environmental conditions could still support
tropical cyclone formation during the next couple days while the
system moves northwestward and then northward around 10 kt over
the central subtropical Atlantic. This system has a medium chance
of formation over the next 48 hours. Meanwhile, moderate to
locally fresh trade winds will continue S of 23N and W of 65W
through early today before diminishing. Fresh trades will pulse
this afternoon and early evening N of Hispaniola and over the
Windward Passage. A weak frontal trough will sink S into the
waters offshore of NE Florida tonight and move SE and reach from
near Bermuda to the northwest Bahamas by Thu. Fresh to near-gale
force N to NE winds will continue between the coast of Morocco and
the Canary Islands through Thu night.

$$
Hagen
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net