[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270352
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Apr 27 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0350 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
11N16W to 08N19W. The ITCZ extends from 08N19W, crosses the
equator at 25W, and continues to the coast of Brazil near
03S40W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from the
equator to 10N between 16W and 23W, and from the equator to 04N
between 05W and 14W. Widely scattered moderate convection dots
the waters within 180 nm of South America between 42W and 64W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends across the southern Gulf States along
31N. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 27N to 29N
between 86W and 90W. West of 88W, winds are generally moderate
from the SE with 2-4 ft seas. East of 88W and north of 26N winds
are gentle from the E with 1-3 ft seas. A surface trough across
the Yucatan Peninsula is supporting a localized area of fresh SE
winds in the Yucatan Channel and north of the Peninsula, where
seas are 3-5 ft.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong winds will pulse near
and north of the Yucatan Peninsula the next few evenings. A
strong cold front is forecast to enter the northwestern and west-
central Gulf Sat afternoon, then move eastward through early
next week. This will result in fresh to strong winds, reaching
locally near-gale, winds across the western Gulf this weekend.
Fresh to strong southerly winds are forecast over the eastern
Gulf early next week. Hazy conditions generated by agricultural
fire in Mexico will linger across the west-central and central
Gulf, and Bay of Campeche through Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak pressure gradient across the basin is producing mainly
gentle easterly winds, except for moderate to fresh E-SE winds
in the Gulf of Honduras and Yucatan Channel, and moderate to
fresh NE winds along the coast of Colombia. Seas are generally 1-
3 ft across the basin, except 3-5 ft in the Gulf of Honduras and
off the coast of Colombia. Northerly swell of 2-4 ft is
propagating through the Mona and Anegada Passages.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds over the NW Caribbean
will continue through this weekend. Fresh to locally strong
easterly winds are also expected offshore of Colombia most of
this week. Moderate to occasional fresh trades are anticipated
for the rest of the basin. Gentle to moderate seas will prevail
across the entire basin through the end of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is analyzed NE of the Bahamas with scattered
moderate convection observed along the Florida coast and from
26N to 29N between 69W and 72W. Outside of thunderstorms, winds
are gentle to moderate out of the east with moderate seas in the
western subtropical Atlantic. A 1020 mb high pressure center is
analyzed near 28N60W, surrounded by light winds which increase
to moderate easterlies north of a shearline extending from
19N55W to 24N71W. Winds are gentle south of the shearline. Seas
are in the 5-7 ft range.

Farther east, a cold front extends from 31N26W to 19N55W.
Scattered moderate convection is observed along the front from
29N to 31N between 24W and 27W. Recent scatterometer passes
confirm westerly winds are moderate to fresh behind the front,
with moderate SW winds ahead of the front. Seas are 6-9 ft
behind the front and 5-7 ft ahead of the front. The remainder of
the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge
over the eastern Atlantic anchored by a 1018 mb high centered
near 20N29W. This feature is bringing light to gentle
anticyclonic flow to the eastern subtropical Atlantic. Gentle to
moderate NE trade winds prevail south of 20N. Seas are 4-6 ft
across this area.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will prevail over
the area through the upcoming weekend. Fresh southerly winds and
slightly higher seas will develop east of northern Florida Fri
through Sat. A deepening low pressure northeast of Bermuda will
increase winds and generate a large northerly swell north of 28N
and east of 60W Fri evening through Sat. Looking ahead, strong
cold front is is forecast to move off the US east coast on Mon,
with fresh to strong southerly winds and building seas north of
25N.

$$
Flynn
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