[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261717
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Apr 26 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
11N16W to 03N24W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that
it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to the Equator and near
40W. Scattered moderate convection prevails S of 12N and E of 20W,
and from 02N-05S between 21W-37W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front is currently across the southern Gulf States
along 31N. Gentle to moderate east winds prevail over the
northern Gulf as indicated by latest ASCAT data. Light to gentle
east to southeast winds are over the remainder of the Gulf, except
for gentle to moderate southeast winds just off the norther tip
of the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas are 3-5 ft, except for lower seas
of 2-4 ft in the SW and southeastern Gulf and the central Gulf.
Slightly lower seas of 1-3 ft are in the NE Gulf.

For the forecast, winds near and north of the Yucatan
Peninsula will pulse to strong at night through Sat night. The
front should lift northward as a warm front starting Thu
afternoon, which will cause moderate to fresh winds at the central
Gulf thru Fri afternoon. A strong cold front is forecast to enter
the northwestern and west-central Gulf on Sat, then move eastward
thru early next week. This will bring fresh to strong with
locally near-gale westerly winds across the western Gulf this
weekend, and fresh to strong southerly winds to the eastern Gulf
early next week. Seas will range from moderate to rough during the
cold front passage.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak pressure gradient across the basin is producing light to
gentle easterly winds, except for moderate east-southeast winds in
the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh to strong northeast winds are right
offshore the coast of Colombia. Seas are generally 1-3 ft across
the basin, except for 3-4 ft from 11N to 15N between 72W-76W and
north of 15N between 64W-72W. A small northerly swell is sending
seas of 3-4 ft from the Atlantic through the Mona and Anegada
Passages.

A surface trough is analyzed along 62W and S of 18N. Satellite
imagery depicts scattered to locally broken clouds along with
high clouds that are streaming northeastward S of 17N and E of
about 68W. Scattered showers are possible within this area. The
trough will slowly move west-northwest through Thursday while it
weakens.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh E to SE winds will expand
northward from the Gulf of Honduras toward the Yucatan Channel
tonight, and then linger through Sat. Fresh to locally strong
easterly winds are expected offshore Colombia through this
weekend. Moderate to occasional fresh trades are anticipated for
the rest of the basin. Gentle to moderate seas will prevail across
the entire basin through the end of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is analyzed over the Florida Peninsula along 81W.
The current pressure gradient is allowing for gentle to moderate
east to southeast winds west of 60W, with light anticyclonic winds
north of 27N between 56W-70W. Seas over this area are 3-5 ft. A
swath of mostly moderate east winds is present from 22N to 24N
between 57W-75W. Seas with these winds are 5-6 ft. Gentle
northeast to east winds are south of 22N between 50W and the
southeastern Bahamas. Seas with these winds are 4-6 ft due to a
north swell.

Farther east, a stationary front stretches from near 31N27W
southwestward to 21N48W, where it becomes a shearline to 24N71W.
Per latest ASCAT data passes, moderate to fresh west to northwest
winds are northwest of the front, while moderate southwest winds
are within 120 nm southeast of the front. Northwest to north swell
reaches into the northern part of the area to near 28N and
between 35W-55W. Seas produced by this swell are 8-10 ft. The
remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad
subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic, with a weak 1017 mb
high center southeast of the stationary front near 22N29W. The
associated gradient is bringing a light to gentle anticyclonic
wind flow to the southeast of the stationary front. Gentle to
moderate NE trade winds prevail S of 20N. Seas are 4-6 ft are
noted across this area.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda high should dominate
the western Atlantic through Fri morning. A cold front exiting the
US southeast coast will cause fresh southerly winds and building
seas east of northern Florida Fri through Sat. A deepening low
pressure northeast of Bermuda will also cause fresh to strong NW
winds and rough seas in large northerly swell north of 28N and
east of 60W Fri evening through Sat afternoon.

$$
ERA
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