[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250357
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Apr 25 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0350 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 02N24W. The ITCZ continues to the equator at 44W.
Scattered moderate with isolated strong convection is observed
from 03N to 06N between 10W and 15W, and within 90 nm of the
monsoon trough.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak stationary front extends along the northern Gulf of
Mexico from the Florida Big Bend area to near Corpus Christi,
Texas. In the central Gulf, a 1010 mb low pressure center is
analyzed near 25N89W with a surface trough extending NE and SW.
Scattered moderate convection is observed in the eastern Gulf
from 24N to 26N between 84W and 88W. In the northern Gulf, winds
are generally moderate to fresh from the E to NE. Seas are 3-5
ft in the NE Gulf and 5-7 ft in the NW Gulf due to longer fetch.
Winds are gentle to moderate in the southern Gulf. Seas are 2-4
ft in the SE Gulf and 4-6 ft in the SW Gulf.

For the forecast, the front is forecast to dissipate over the
next day. Fresh to strong east winds along and just offshore the
northern Yucatan Peninsula will develop at night on Wed and Thu.
A cold front will move over the NW Gulf Thu, then reach from the
NE Gulf to west-central Gulf Fri and begin to dissipate
afterward as it reaches from central Florida to the central Gulf
on Sat. Moderate to fresh southwest winds are expected ahead of
it over the north-central and NE waters. A stronger cold front
is expected to enter the NW Gulf early Sat, and reach from the
Florida panhandle to the Yucatan Peninsula by late Sat. Fresh to
strong northerly winds will follow the front, with winds
possibly reaching to near gale-force in the far west-central
Gulf Sat and in the far SW Gulf late Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An atypical weak pressure gradient across the basin is producing
generally light to gentle variable winds, except for moderate to
fresh SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are generally
slight with moderate heights of 4-6 ft in the Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, fresh east to southeast winds will develop in
and near the Yucatan Channel starting Tue night. Fresh to strong
east to southeast winds will be just offshore the northeast
coast of Honduras Wed into early this weekend. Otherwise, a weak
pressure gradient over the Caribbean waters will result in
relatively quiet marine conditions through the period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak stationary front extends across the western Atlantic from
near 31N72W to 29N80W. A few isolated showers and thunderstorms
are noted within 150 nm of the frontal boundary. Moderate
easterly winds and 3-5 ft seas are observed along the Florida
coast. Southeast of the frontal boundary a surface trough
extends across the central Atlantic from 30N35W to 21N50W to
22N62W. North of the trough, easterly winds are moderate with 6-
8 ft seas. East of the trough, SW winds are fresh with 7-9 ft
seas. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a
broad subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic producing
gentle to moderate trade winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, The weak stationary front is
likely to sag southeastward through Wed while slowly
dissipating. Fresh to locally strong southerly winds are
expected to develop offshore northern Florida beginning late
this week as a warm front lifts northward east of northern
Florida in advance of an approaching cold front. This next cold
front is expected to approach the southeastern U.S. coast Sat
and Sat night.

$$
Flynn
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net