[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240559
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Apr 24 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from the coast of Guinea
near 11N15W to 02N21W. The ITCZ extends from 02N40W to 05N51W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm on either
side of the ITCZ west of 35W. Similar convection is also observed
within 60 nm of the ITCZ between 21W and 30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The cold front that recently entered the NW Gulf of Mexico has
stalled, stretching from the coast of central Louisiana to the
tip of southern Texas. A cold front continues eastward from
eastern Louisiana to near Panama City, FL. No significant
precipitation is along this boundary. Ahead of this front, a
vigorous squall line with winds gusting to near gale force,
heavy downpours, and frequent lightning is racing SE across the
Gulf. A large complex of strong to severe numerous thunderstorms
is currently affecting the area from 22N to 29N between 88W and
93W. A recent scatterometer pass noted strong to near gale force
NE winds north of 21N and west of 88W. Seas are likely 6 to 8 ft
in the W and NW Gulf. Recent buoy observations recorded seas up
to 10 ft with the strongest winds. Mariners are asked to
navigate with caution. Elsewhere in the Gulf, moderate E-NE
winds and seas less than 3 ft are over the NE and far E basin,
ahead of the hazardous weather.

For the forecast, the stationary front will weaken as it reaches
from northern Florida to the western Gulf by early Mon. Fresh to
strong northeast to east winds over the NW Gulf will diminish
Mon afternoon. Fresh to strong east winds will develop along and
just offshore the northern Yucatan Peninsula tonight and Wed
night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak pressure pattern across the basin results in light to
gentle variable winds, except for moderate easterly breezes in
the Gulf of Honduras. Slight seas are prevalent across the
Caribbean waters, except for moderate seas in the Gulf of
Honduras. Areas of haze from agricultural fires are present over
the Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, fresh E to SE winds will develop in and near
the Yucatan Channel starting Tue night. Fresh to strong E to SE
winds will be just offshore the northeast coast of Honduras
beginning Wed. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient over the
Caribbean waters will result in relatively quiet marine
conditions through the period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak stationary front extends from near 31N75W to just east of
Cape Canaveral. No significant winds or seas are associated with
this boundary. To the SE, a broad surface trough is located
north of the eastern Greater Antilles and east of the Bahamas,
mainly along 23N. No significant convection is associated with
this feature. Moderate to fresh ENE winds are on the north side
of the axis between 55W and 75W. Seas of 4-7 ft are present
north of 25N and west of 60W and 72W.

Farther east, a weakening cold front extends from 31N32W to
23N55W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are within 120 nm E
of the boundary. The latest satellite-derived wind data shows
fresh to strong SW-W winds north of 24N and between 30W and 45W.
The wave heights in these waters are 7-12 ft, with the highest
seas near 30N43W. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is
dominated by a broad subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic,
sustaining moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will weaken
through late Mon and dissipate early on Tue. Fresh to locally
strong southerly winds are expected to develop offshore northern
Florida beginning Wed as weak low pressure forms along a stalled
out boundary offshore the Georgia southeast coast.

$$
Mora
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