[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231052
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Apr 23 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Guinea near
10N14W to 04N17W. The ITCZ continues from 04N17W to 02N30W to
the coast of Brazil near 03N51W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is seen within 180 nm north of the ITCZ
between 26W-33W and within 60 nm south of the ITCZ between 23W-
27W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 04N between
12W-17W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak cold front extends from central Florida southwestward
into the Gulf to near 26N88W. No significant convection is along
this boundary. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds are
north of the front. A partial overnight ASCAT data pass
highlighted moderate to fresh northeast to east winds between
89W-94W. Mostly fresh east to southeast winds are west of 94W.
Gentle to moderate northeast to east winds are elsewhere, except
for gentle north to northeast winds over the southeastern Gulf.
Seas are in the range of 2-4 ft, except for slightly higher seas
of 3-5 ft over the west-central and NW Gulf areas. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are over the western Bay of Campeche.
Areas of haze from agricultural fires are present over the
southwestern Gulf.

For the forecast, the weak cold front will reach from southwest
Florida to near 24N88W this morning. It will continue to slowly
move southeastward through late Mon while weakening. Fresh to
strong E to SE to E winds are expected through Mon night over most
of the western and central Gulf as the gradient tightens when a
trough moves offshore Texas and NE Mexico. Wind gusts to near
gale-force may occur in and near scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms that are expected over these same areas of the
Gulf. Fresh to strong east winds will develop along and just
offshore the northern Yucatan Peninsula tonight and Wed night.
Agricultural fires over Mexico and Central America will continue
to bring hazy conditions over some sections of the SW Gulf and
the Bay Campeche through early this afternoon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The typical Atlantic high pressure ridging is non-existent at
the present time. As a result, the gradient is very weak across
the basin. Overnight ASCAT data passes revealed light winds over
just about the entire basin, except south of 18N and west of 85W
including the Gulf of Honduras where moderate to fresh east to
southeast winds are occurring. Seas across the area are
atypically low, in the 2-4 ft range. No significant deep
convection is occurring today. Areas of haze from agricultural
fires are present over the Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, fresh east to southeast winds will develop in
and near the Yucatan Channel starting Tue night. Fresh to strong
east to southeast winds will be just offshore the northeast coast
of Honduras beginning Wed. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient
over the Caribbean waters will result in relatively quiet marine
conditions through the period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are quickly advancing east-
southeastward over the waters east of northern Florida. This
activity is noted from 28N to 31N and between 76W-79W. It is
preceding a cold front that a few hours ago had moved off the
U.S. southeastern coast. It extends along a position from 31N78W
to inland north-central Florida. Fresh north to northeast winds
are behind the front along with seas of 4-6 ft. Gentle to
moderate southeast to south winds southeast of the front to near
27N and west of about 75W. Seas are 4-5 ft over this part of the
area.

Weak low pressure center is centered about 330 nm northeast of
Puerto Rico. A trough extends from the low to 24N70W and northwest
to 28N74W. The low is allowing for a break in the trade winds
south of 25N, and west of 60W. Light and variable winds with calm
seas are within the region. North of 25N and west of 60W, fresh
east winds are noted, where seas are 5-7 ft.

Farther east, a cold front extends from 31N34W to 28N43W and to
26N56W. Fresh to strong west to northwest winds along with seas
of 10-12 ft in northwest swell are north of the front. Fresh
southwest winds and seas of 8-9 ft in northwest to north swell
are east of the front north of about 26N. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are east of the front north of 27N. High
pressure of 1017 mb is located near 25N27W, with a ridge
stretching west-southwestward to near 18N57W as inferred from an
ASCAT data pass.
Its related gradient supports light anticyclonic winds near and
around the high center. Seas of 3-5 ft are south of the
previously mentioned cold front, except for slightly higher seas
of 5-6 ft south of about 12N and east of 51W, where gentle to
moderate east winds are present.

For the forecast west of 55W, the weak low pressure centered
about 330 nm NE of Puerto Rico will drift southward during this
morning and dissipate in the afternoon. The pressure gradient
between high pressure to the north and the low is supporting fresh
northeast to east winds between Bermuda and the Bahamas along
with seas to 8 ft. These conditions will diminish this morning. A
weak cold front offshore NE Florida will slowly move southeastward
through late Mon and dissipate late Tue. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are along the front. Fresh to locally strong
southerly winds are expected to develop offshore northern and
central Florida beginning Wed as low pressure develops off the
southeastern U.S. coast.

$$
Aguirre
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