[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 222035
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Apr 23 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W
to 04N17W. The ITCZ continues from 04N17W to 02N30W the coast of
Brazil near 04N51W. Scattered moderate and isolated convection is
noted south of 04N and east of 22W. No significant convection is
evident along the ITCZ or monsoon trough.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend area to just
southeast of the mouth of the Rio Grande. A pre- frontal trough
is noted ahead of the front over the eastern Gulf. An earlier
scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh to strong NE to E
winds behind the front over the coastal waters of southwest
Louisiana and northern Texas. Judging by recent buoy observations,
these winds have diminished 15 to 20 kt. Gentle to moderate winds
persist elsewhere, except for light and variable breezes near the
Yucatan Channel. Wave heights are 3 to 5 ft off Texas, and 2 to 4
ft elsewhere. Areas of haze and smoke from agricultural fires are
present over the southwest Gulf.

For the forecast, the front will dissipate by early Sun. Fresh to
strong E to SE to E winds are expected Sun through Mon night over
most of the western and central Gulf. Fresh to strong east winds
will develop along and just offshore the northern Yucatan
Peninsula at night Sun and Tue. Agricultural fires over Mexico and
Central America may result in smoke and haze over the the SW Gulf
and the Bay Campeche today. Mariners may experience reduced
visibility over these waters.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The subtropical ridge north of the area has been disrupted by a
front moving through the Gulf of Mexico and low pressure
northeast of the Bahamas. Satellite derived data and buoy
observations confirm this pattern is supporting only light breezes
across the Caribbean this afternoon, with 2 to 4 ft seas. No
significant deep convection is occurring today. Areas of haze from
agricultural fires are present over the Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, the weak pressure gradient over the Caribbean
waters will result in relatively quiet marine conditions through
the period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

1006 mb low pressure centered northeast of the Bahamas near 26N73W
is well defined on satellite imagery this afternoon. No
significantshower or thunderstorm activity is evident near the
low pressure. A surface trough extends along 26N east of the low
pressure to 60W. Recent satellite derived data indicates an area
of fresh to strong E winds and 6 to 8 ft within 180 nm north of
this trough, between 62W and 72W. Stronger gusts may be occurring
near scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in this area,
although this appears to be diminishing. Elsewhere north of the
trough and west of 60W, moderate to fresh E to SE winds and 5 to 7
ft combined seas.

Farther east, a cold front extends from 31N42W to 28N55W to
31N66W. Fresh to strong W to NW winds and 8 to 11 ft combined seas
in NW swell are evident north of the front. Fresh SW winds and 6
to 9 ft seas are noted within 120 nm east of the front. The
subtropical is displaced from just west of the Cabo Verde Islands
to 20N35W to 23N60W, supporting light breezes along the ridge axis
and moderate trade winds farther south, with 4 to 6 ft in NW
swell.

For the forecast west of 55W, the weak low pressure east of the
Bahamas will drift southward through this evening then dissipate.
The pressure gradient between high pressure to the north and the
low will support fresh to strong winds between Bermuda and the
Bahamas through late tonight, with seas to 8 ft. Seas will subside
late tonight. A weak cold front will move off the coast of
northeast Florida late this evening, then dissipate north of the
Bahamas by Mon. Fresh to strong southerly winds are expected to
develop offshore northern and central Florida during the middle of
next week in advance of low pressure that will track
northeastward along the southeastern U.S. coast.

$$
Christensen
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