[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 202307
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Apr 21 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N15W to 04N25W. The ITCZ
continues from 04N25W to 05N45W. Scattered moderate convection is
evident from 03N to 06N between 22W and 32W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from the Carolinas to eastern Texas. A
recent scatterometer satellite pass shows this pattern is
supporting moderate to fresh SE winds over the western Gulf,
where combined seas are 5 to 7 ft. Light to gentle breezes and 3
to 5 ft seas are noted over the eastern Gulf. There may be some
limitation to visibility over the southwest Gulf due to smoke and
haze from agricultural fires over southern Mexico and Central
America.

For the forecast, the subtropical ridge will continue to support
moderate to fresh SE to S return flow over the Gulf of Mexico
through Fri. The diurnal trough forming over the Yucatan will
promote strong E winds over E Bay of Campeche tonight.
Agricultural and seasonal fires over Mexico and Central America
result in smoke and haze over the the SW Gulf and the Bay
Campeche. Mariners may experience reduced visibility in these
waters. A cold front that is expected to enter the NW Gulf on Fri
night. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds will prevail behind the
front on Sat. By Sun morning, the dissipating front will extend
from SW Florida to near the Texas-Mexico border. Looking ahead,
as a surface ridge builds to the north of the Gulf, fresh to
strong E to SE to E winds are expected on Sun and Mon over most
of the western and central Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends along 75W from eastern Cuba to the
central Bahamas is disrupting the subtropical ridge north of the
area. This pattern is allowing only light to gentle E to SE
breezes over the Caribbean west of 80W, except for moderate to
fresh winds funneling close to the coast of Honduras. The pattern
is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds across the
Caribbean east of 80W. Combined seas are 5 to 7 ft east of 80W,
and mostly 2 to 4 ft west of 80W.

For the forecast, the high pressure system centered north of the
Caribbean will weaken over the next couple of days. This will
allow the fresh to strong NE to E trades over the S central
Caribbean and fresh E trades over the Gulf of Honduras to
diminish by Fri. Elsewhere, winds and seas will be quiescent
through early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Divergent flow aloft on the southeast side of an upper trough
reaching from 31N75W to over the northern Bahamas is supporting
clusters of showers and thunderstorms from 24N to 28N between 65W
and 75W. A few showers and thunderstorms are active off eastern
Cuba as well. An associated surface trough is analyzed along 75W
between eastern Cuba and the central Bahamas. The gradient
between the surface trough and the subtropical ridge north of the
area is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 4 to 6 ft
combined seas from 27N to 31N west of 75W. Farther east, ridging
centered by 1022 mb high pressure near 28N48W is supporting
moderate to fresh trade winds and 5 to 7 ft combined seas south
of 22N and light to gentle breezes and 4 to 6 ft combined seas
north of 22N with northerly swell.

For the forecast west of 55W, the trough along 75W is likely to
develop into low pressure by Fri night and persist through Sun
east of the Bahamas. This feature should strengthen trades
between Bermuda and the Bahamas on Sat and Sun, allowing for
fresh to strong speeds and building seas peaking near 9 ft,
before weakening on Mon. A weak cold front should move off the
coast of NE Florida Sat night, then dissipate north of the
Bahamas by Mon. Moderate N swell is anticipated to impact the N
waters east of 60W beginning on Sat.

$$
Christensen
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