[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191804
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Apr 19 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of
Guinea near 10N14W, to 05N18W. The ITCZ continues from
05N18W, to 03N25W and 02N33W. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 10N
southward from 41W eastward.

The GFS model for 500 mb shows that cyclonic wind flow
with a trough is in the area of the coastal waters between
Suriname and Brazil between 48W and 55W. A surface trough
was in the same general area 24 hours ago. Precipitation:
widely scattered to scattered moderate, and isolated to
widely scattered strong, are from 10N southward
between 41W and 59W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The GFS model shows that a 700 mb trough is digging
through Texas. Precipitation: broken to overcast
multilayered clouds, and widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong is from 22N northward from 88W
westward.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the area.
A surface ridge extends from a south central Georgia
1021 mb high pressure center, through central Louisiana,
into east Texas. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong is from 22N northward from 90W
eastward. Mostly fresh and some strong winds are
from 90W westward. Moderate to fresh anticyclonic
wind flow covers the rest of the Gulf of Mexico.
The sea heights range mostly from 5 feet to 7 feet
from 90W westward. Some 4 foot sea heights are in the
coastal waters of Mexico, in the SW corner of the
area. The sea heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet
in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico.

Weak high pressure over the SE United States combined
with surface troughing over Mexico will continue to
force moderate to fresh SE to S return flow over the
Gulf of Mexico through Fri. The diurnal trough forming
over the Yucatan will promote strong E winds over the
SW Gulf tonight and Thu night. Winds will diminish
across the Gulf Fri ahead of a cold front that is
expected to enter the NW Gulf Fri night.
By Sun morning, the front will extend from SW Florida
to near the Texas-Mexico border. Fresh to strong
NE to E winds are expected behind the front this
weekend over the N and central Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The GFS model for 250 mb shows that a trough passes
through the Windward Passage, reaching the coast of
Panama along 80W. The GFS model for 700 mb shows
that a trough is passing through the Yucatan Channel,
reaching the eastern half of the coast of Honduras.
Rainshowers are spread throughout the entire
Caribbean Sea.

Strong NE winds are within 200 nm to the north of
Colombia between 72W and 77W. Fresh E to NE winds
are from 260 nm on the southern end to 300 nm on
the northern end, to the north of Colombia.
Moderate wind speeds are elsewhere between 70W
and 80W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are from 70W
eastward. Fresh E winds are within 100 nm of the
coast of Honduras between 85W and 88W. Moderate
or slower E winds are elsewhere from Honduras
northward from 80W westward. The sea heights
range from 5 feet to 7 feet within 200 nm of
the coast of Colombia between 74W and 78W.
The sea heights range from 4 feet to 5 feet,
elsewhere, from 75W eastward. The sea heights
range from 2 feet to 3 feet in the remainder
of the Caribbean Sea.

High pressure north of the Caribbean will weaken
over the next couple of days. This will allow the
fresh to strong NE to E trades over the S central
Caribbean to diminish by Fri. Elsewhere, winds and
seas will be quiescent through the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front passes through 31N69W, to a 1014 mb low
pressure center that is near 26N74W, through the Bahamas
near 23N75W, to Cuba near 21N76W. 24-hour rainfall totals,
in inches, for the period that ended at 19/1200 UTC,
according to the Pan America Temperatures and Precipitation
Tables, MIATPTPAN, are: 0.27 in Bermuda. A surface trough
is along 29N65W 19N66W. This surface trough has been moving
westward during the last 24 hours to 48 hours. This trough
is weakening, and it is losing its identity. The trough
is between the western edge of the Atlantic Ocean ridge
and the 1014 mb low pressure center and stationary front.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is to the west of the line that is from 31N58W,
to the eastern half of the Dominican Republic. The sea
heights mostly range from 4 feet to 5 feet, with some
3 foot sea heights. Fresh to strong NE winds are from
the 1014 mb low pressure center, northeastward, for the
next 300 nm or so. Moderate or slower wind speeds are
elsewhere from 60W westward.

One 1022 mb high pressure center is near 31N34W. A second
1022 mb high pressure center is near 31N56W. Broad
surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 20N northward from 62W eastward. The sea heights
range from 7 feet to 8 feet from 21N northward from 30W
eastward. The comparatively highest sea heights are to
the north of the Canary Islands. The sea heights mostly
range from 4 feet to 6 feet in the remainder of the
Atlantic Ocean, with some 7 foot sea heights. Strong
NE winds are from 14N to 18N between 20W and 25W.
Mostly fresh NE winds are elsewhere from 20N southward
from 60W eastward. Moderate or slower wind speeds are
in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

A stationary front extends from 31N70W southwestward
to a weak 1014 mb low pres near 26N74W, and then extends
to SE Cuba. The southern portion of the front should
dissipate by Thu, while the northern portion should
remain nearly stationary until dissipating by Fri.
A surface trough is likely to form by Sat northeast
of the Bahamas, strengthening trades between Bermuda
and the Bahamas on Sat and Sun. A weak cold front
should move off the coast of NE Florida Sat night.
Finally, moderate N swell is anticipated to impact
the N waters east of 60W beginning on Sat.

$$
mt/cl
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