[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181805
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Apr 18 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1740 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border of Guinea
and Sierra Leone, to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues from 06N17W,
to 02N20W 01N28W, and 01N37W. Precipitation: scattered
moderate to widely scattered strong is within 150 nm on the
northern side of the ITCZ between 17W and 20W. A surface
trough curves along the line, from the Equator at 48W,
to 03N49W and 05N49W. Precipitation: widely scattered to
scattered moderate and isolated strong is from 02N to 07N
between 47W and the coastal plains of Brazil and French
Guiana. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere
from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The GFS model shows that a 700 mb trough is digging
through Texas. Precipitation: broken to overcast
multilayered clouds, and widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong is from 22N northward from 88W
westward.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the area.
A 1018 mb high pressure center is in the southern half
of Alabama.

The sea heights range from: 5 feet to 6 feet in the
SE part; from 4 feet to 6 feet in the SW part: from
2 feet to 4 feet elsewhere. Strong NE winds are within
75 nm off the NW coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Fresh
NE winds are elsewhere within 380 nm off the NW corner
of the Yucatan Peninsula. Moderate or slower
anticyclonic wind flow is everywhere else in the
Gulf of Mexico.

Weak high pressure over the Florida Panhandle is inducing
fresh SE flow over the W Gulf, with gentle to moderate
E winds elsewhere. These winds will increase over portions
of the western Gulf to strong this evening through Wed
morning. A cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf
Fri night. Fresh to strong N winds and building seas are
expected behind the front this weekend over the central
and western Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front cuts across Cuba near 22N78W, to 20N82W in
the Caribbean Sea, to 19N88W in the coastal plains of the
eastern part of the Yucatan Peninsula. Precipitation:
high clouds are moving northeastward, from the Pacific
Ocean, across Nicaragua, toward Jamaica. Isolated
moderate to locally strong is to the north of the line
that is from Nicaragua beyond the Windward Passage.
Rainshowers are possible from 14N northward from 75W
eastward, in areas of low level clouds in the trade
wind flow.

Fresh E winds are within 135 nm of the coast of Venezuela
between 66W and 69W. Moderate E winds are elsewhere
from 70W eastward. Gentle SE winds are from Puerto
Rico to 25N between 64W and 70W, in the Mona Passage
and in parts of the Atlantic Ocean. Moderate NE winds
are elsewhere from 16N southward. Gentle winds are from
16N northward between the Windward Passage and 80W.
Mostly moderate to some fresh NE winds have been from
85W westward. The sea heights range from: 4 feet to
5 feet in the coastal waters of Colombia and Panama
from 80W eastward; from 3 feet to 4 feet elsewhere
from 80W eastward; reaching 4 feet from 20N northward
from 80W westward; and from 1 foot to 2 feet in
the remainder of the area.

24-hour rainfall totals, in inches, for the period that
ended at 18/1200 UTC, according to the Pan America
Temperatures and Precipitation Tables, MIATPTPAN, are:
0.20 in Montego Bay in Jamaica; and 0.19 in
St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands.

Gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail across
much of the Caribbean this week as a weak ridge persists
southeast of Bermuda. A weak cold front in in NW Caribbean
will dissipate this evening as it reaches from eastern
Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras. Easterly winds are expected
to become fresh to locally strong north of Colombia and
in the Gulf of Honduras Wed through Thu night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 31N71W, to a 1011 mb low
pressure center that is near 26N74W, through the Bahamas,
beyond 22N78W in Cuba, into the Caribbean Sea. 24-hour
rainfall totals, in inches, for the period that ended at
18/1200 UTC, according to the Pan America Temperatures and
Precipitation TTLables, MIATPTPAN, are: 0.91 in Nassau in the
Bahamas, and 0.67 in Freeport in the Bahamas. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is between the line from
31N64W to Haiti, and 78W.

A surface trough is along 26N64W 19N67W. Precipitation:
broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated to
widely scattered moderate rainshowers are from 18N to
28N between 61W and 68W.

A surface trough is along 31N24W 28N30W 28N40W 29N48W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is
from 20N northward between 20W and 50W. Moderate to
fresh N winds and seas of 5-6 ft are west of the cold
front. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds and 5-6 ft seas
extend east of the front to 67W, north of 29N.
Elsewhere within 300 nm east of the front,
moderate S to SW winds and seas to 5 ft are present.

Fresh N winds and 8-9 ft seas are mainly N of 25N and
E of 35W. Fresh NE trades and 6-7 ft seas are from 04N
to 16N between the coast of Africa and the Lesser
Antilles.

A cold front extends from 31N71W to central Cuba. This
front will drift E into tonight, with the southern part
dissipating and the northern part becoming stationary front
around
Bermuda to NE of the Bahamas into late week. Looking ahead, a
strengthening BermuTLda High will introduce moderate to fresh
easterly winds and higher seas across the western Atlantic toward
the weekend.

$$
mt/sk
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