[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 171043
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Apr 17 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Africa near 12N16W to 04N20W. The ITCZ extends from 04N20W to
01N28W to 00N39W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is observed south of 05N and between 05W and 45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend to 24N88W to
23N93W, then continues as a stationary front to Mexico near
21N98W. A surface trough is analyzed over the western Bay of
Campeche from 18N93W to 22N96W. Divergence aloft is aiding in the
continuation of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
across the Bay of Campeche, mostly east of the surface trough and
south of the front. Thunderstorms with frequent lightning are
occurring offshore of Ft. Myers and Sarasota, FL, mainly east of
83.5W. A 1022 mb high pressure centered near College Station,
Texas is spreading ridging and clear skies over the NW Gulf. Fresh
to strong N winds are occurring behind the front over the NE Gulf.
NOAA buoy 42036 located near 28.5N 84.5W recently reported N winds
at 25 kt gusting to 29 kt. The earlier strong to near-gale force
winds over the southern Bay of Campeche have likely now diminished
to fresh. Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere. Altimeter
passes from 17/0330 UTC and 17/0430 UTC revealed 8-11 ft seas in
NW to N swell over the south-central Gulf of Mexico from 22N to
25N between 85.5W to 87.5W. These seas have likely subsided to 8-9
ft now, with highest seas near 23N86.5W, slowly subsiding as they
approach the Yucatan Channel. Seas of 4-7 ft prevail elsewhere,
except for 3 ft near the north-central and NW Gulf Coast.

Some smoke from agricultural fires over southern Mexico may be
impacting portions of the Bay of Campeche outside of showers and
thunderstorms.

For the forecast, the front will reach from the Straits of Florida
to the northeast Yucatan Peninsula tonight before stalling Tue
and dissipating by Tue night. Fresh to locally strong N to NE
winds are expected behind the front through this morning. Fresh to
locally strong SE winds are likely over the western Gulf Tue
evening into Wed, diminishing through Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are noted between the Haiti and
eastern Cuba, as well as in the lee of eastern Cuba. Similar
activity is along the coast of Belize and Guatemala. Moderate E
trade winds prevail across the eastern and central Caribbean,
except for locally fresh near the coasts of Colombia and NW
Venezuela. Seas are 3-5 ft, except for up to 6 ft offshore
Colombia. Fresh winds are also likely occurring over the Gulf of
Honduras with seas to 5 ft. Gentle winds and 1-3 ft seas prevail
elsewhere across the western Caribbean, except for moderate to
fresh N winds in the Yucatan Channel, where seas could be
building up to 6 ft. Smoke from agricultural fires over Central
America may be affecting visibility over portions of the Gulf of
Honduras.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail
across the Caribbean through Tue night as a weak ridge sits well
northeast of the area. A weakening cold front over the Gulf of
Mexico will approach the Yucatan Channel tonight. Looking ahead,
winds may increase off Colombia by Wed night as the ridge builds
north of the region following the front.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front has entered the Atlantic off northern Florida and
extends from 31N80.5W to just south of Jacksonville, FL. Scattered
moderate convection is occurring ahead of the front, between the
east coast of Florida and 76.5W, from 24N to 31N. Moderate to
fresh winds and 4-6 ft seas are offshore northern Florida. 1021 mb
high pressure is centered near 31N58W, spreading ridging across
most of the western and central Atlantic. Aside from the area off
NE Florida, winds are moderate or weaker, north of 20N and west of
50W, with seas in the 3-6 ft range.

To the east, a cold front extends from 31N34.5W to 29N42W, then
continues as a stationary front to 31N52W. Although winds behind
this front are gentle to moderate, seas of 6-8 ft in N swell are
coming into the area 28N and E of 45W. In the tropical Atlantic,
moderate to fresh NE trade winds and seas 5 to 7 ft prevail south
of 20N, from the coast of Africa to the Lesser Antilles.

For the forecast west of 55W, the front off NE Florida will
continue moving slowly to the southeast and reach from 31N72W to
the Straits of Florida early Tue, and from Bermuda to Havana, Cuba
early Wed before stalling and dissipating through Thu. High
pressure will build in the wake of the front between Bermuda and
northeast Florida through Fri.

$$
Hagen
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