[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 142317
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Apr 15 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through Sierra Leone near 08N13W
southwestward to 05N15W. The ITCZ continues from 05N15W to
01N26W and to 01S46W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is seen within 120 nm south of the ITCZ between
15W-24W, within 60 nm south of the ITCZ between 37W-39W and
north of the ITCZ within 60 nm of 03N41W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 01N to 07N between 10W-15W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The 18 UTC surface analysis has a weak high pressure ridge
extending from southwest Florida northwest to southeastern
Louisiana. The associated gradient is providing for generally
gentle to moderate return flow over the basin, with seas of
3-5 ft, except for slightly higher seas of 3-5 ft over the
eastern Bay of Campeche, the SW Gulf and over the waters from
22N to 26N west of 87W. Satellite imagery shows newly formed
scattered showers and thunderstorms moving east-northeastward
from 25N to 28N and east of 86W to inland central Florida.

Some surface observations along the coast of the Bay of Campeche
indicate reduced visibility of 3-5 SM due to hazy conditions
arising from inland agricultural fires. An ill- defined fair
weather mesoscale low lifting north is apparent on visible
satellite just northeast of Tampico, Mexico.

For the forecast, the ridge will shift eastward Sat ahead of a
cold front that is forecast to enter the western Gulf Sat night.
The front will move southeastward across much of the Gulf and
reach from Sarasota, FL to Tampico, Mexico by early Mon. Fresh to
strong north to northeast winds and building seas are likely
behind the front over much of the western and central Gulf Sun
into early Mon. Well in advance of the front, there is a
possibility of some severe thunderstorm squalls with gusty winds
over portions of the north-central and NE Gulf on Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Latest ASCAT data showed strong to near-gale force northeast to
east winds offshore Colombia north to near 13N. Seas with these
winds are in the 8-11 ft range. Fresh to strong northeast to
east winds were noted elsewhere from 11N to 15N between 73W-80W
along with seas of 7-10 ft. Elsewhere over the remainder of the
basin, moderate to locally fresh trades prevail with 4-7 ft
seas. In the NW Caribbean, gentle to moderate southeast winds
continue with seas of 3-4 ft seas. Fresh southeast winds are in
the Gulf of Honduras as depicted in the latest ASCAT data pass
over the Gulf. Seas there are 4-6 ft.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge located just north of the
Caribbean, will sustain a moderate trade-wind regime across the
eastern and central Caribbean through the weekend, except for
fresh to strong in the south-central Caribbean. Strong to near
gale-force winds will continue through the weekend within 60 nm
of the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong east to southeast
winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras tonight and Sat night.
Looking ahead, winds should diminish across the basin early next
week as a weakening cold front approaches the Yucatan Channel.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A central Atlantic cold front extends from near 31N41W to 25N49W,
where it transitions to a stationary front that continues to
22N60W and west-northwestward to 23N70W and to 28N75W and to
north of the area at 31N75W. Numerous showers and thunderstorms
moving eastward are noted from 27N to 30N between 70W-75W.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms moving east-northeastward
are over most of the Bahamas extending westward to just offshore
some sections of the South Florida and from the Bahamas
southwestward to the Straits of Florida. Similar activity moving
east-northeastward is just offshore central Florida and along and
just inland central and eastern Cuba.

A central Atlantic 1034 mb high center is analyzed near 30N60W.
A 1026 mb high center is located near the Azores. These features
are allowing for generally gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow
across most of the basin. Seas are 4-7 ft across these waters. In
the far eastern Atlantic, strong to near gale-force northeast
winds were detected by the latest ASCAT data passes near the
Canary Islands and the coast of Africa. Seas with these winds
are 8-9 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, moderate to fresh winds will remain
north of the aforementioned front as it weakens through Sat. The
next cold front is expected to move offshore of northern Florida
Sun night, or early on Mon morning enhancing winds and seas
across the western Atlantic through Tue.

$$
Aguirre
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