[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131715
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Apr 13 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1655 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W and continues to 05N20W. The ITCZ extends from
05N20W to 01N39W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is observed south of 06N and east of 19W and also south of 06N and
between 32W and 43W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The broad area of low pressure previously over the northern Gulf
of Mexico, has moved inland and it is now over southern Alabama.
As of 1500 UTC, a cold front extends from the Florida panhandle to
near 86N25W and then becomes a surface trough that continues to
23N91W. A few showers are affecting the waters off the Big Bend
region of Florida, but no deep convection is found in the
remainder of the Gulf. A recent scatterometer satellite pass and
surface observations indicate that fresh to strong S-SW winds are
noted north of 25N and east of 89W. Seas in these waters are 6-11
ft with the highest seas occurring north of 29N and between 86W
and 88W. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas
prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, although gale force winds have ended over the
Gulf of Mexico, strong winds will continue off the western Florida
Panhandle and Alabama through midday, then fresh through late
afternoon as the low moves farther inland. Marine conditions will
improve by this evening. A cold front is forecast to enter the
western Gulf Sat night and move across much of the Gulf, extending
from Tampa Bay, FL to Tampico, Mexico by early Mon. Fresh to
strong N to NE winds and building seas are likely behind the front
over much of the western and central Gulf Sun into early Mon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A recent scatterometer satellite pass show fresh to strong easterly
trade winds in the south-central Caribbean Sea. The strongest
winds are occurring off NW Colombia. Seas in these waters are 5-8
ft. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are
prevalent in the remainder of the basin. No deep convection is
seen in the Caribbean.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge, located just N of the NE
Caribbean, will sustain a moderate trade-wind regime across the
eastern and central Caribbean through the weekend, except for
fresh to strong in the south-central Caribbean, north of
Colombia. Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of
Honduras Fri night and Sat night. Moderate northerly swell
related to a frontal boundary currently across the western
Atlantic will continue spreading southward across the Mona
Passage and the southeastern basin through today before
dissipating by the weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N49W to 23N64W to 25N73W,
transitioning into a warm front that extends to NE Florida.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong storms are noted ahead of
the stationary front, mainly north of 26N and west of 43W. Similar
convection is seen north of the warm front, especially west of
75W. Fresh to strong anticyclonic winds are evident within 200 nm
to the north of the boundaries previously mentioned. Seas in these
waters are 5-9 ft with the highest seas off NE Florida. Moderate
to fresh southerly winds, with some locally strong winds
associated with the strong convection in the region, are present
ahead of the stationary front, north of 26N and west of 40W. Seas
in the area described are 5-8 ft.

The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad
subtropical ridge positioned east of the Azores. The pressure
gradient between this high pressure and lower pressures over NW
Africa sustain fresh to strong N-NE winds in the NE Atlantic,
especially north of 24N and east of 30W. The wave heights in these
waters are 6-10 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, a stationary front extends from 26N55W
to 23N64W to 25N73W then becomes a warm front from that point to
NE Florida near 29N81W. Fresh to strong SE winds north of 28N and
west of 76W will prevail through this evening. The portion of the
front east of 65W will drift SE as a cold front through early Fri
while weakening. The next cold front should move offshore northern
Florida Sun night.

$$
DELGADO
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