[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130004
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Apr 13 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between low
pressure of 1008 mb centered in the central Gulf near 26N89W,
with associated warm front and high pressure to its N and
NE has resulted in a tight pressure gradient that is bringing
strong to gale force NE and E winds over most of the north-central
and NE Gulf waters. These winds are generating seas in the range
of 8-14 ft. The strong to gale-force winds will continue over the
north-central and NE Gulf through tonight as the low tracks
generally northward. The low will move inland over the U.S. north-
central Gulf Coast on Thu. Once the low moves inland, marine
conditions will improve Thu afternoon and evening. Please read the
latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center
at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic off the coast of
W Africa near 07N12W and continues to 02N19W to 00N30W where it
transitions to the ITCZ that continues to just below the Equator
near 42W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
from 04S to 08N between 14W-30W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the section above for details on a Gale Warning that
is currently in effect for the north-central and NE Gulf.

The low pressure of 1008 mb centered near 26N89W, and that is
described above under Special Features has a warm front extending
from it SE to Miami, where it transitions to a stationary front.
Plenty of lift exists along and north of the warm front, where
the atmosphere is very unstable. Numerous moderate convection
continues over the coastal and offshore waters between the Florida
Panhandle and SE Louisiana while scattered showers prevail
elsewhere in the NE and SE gulf. Elsewhere outside the areas
impacted by the Special Features system, generally gentle to
moderate winds are over the western part of the Gulf, while
moderate to fresh W to NW winds are over portions of the SE Gulf.
Seas outside the impacted Special Feature system range from 4-7
ft.

For the forecast, the 1008 mb low pressure over the central Gulf
near 26N89W will move inland over the U.S. north-central Gulf
Coast on Thu. Expect improving marine conditions in its wake. For
the weekend, a cold front is forecast to enter the western Gulf
which will cause winds and seas to increase over the western and
central parts of the Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Ridging aloft and weak surface high pressure across the area is
maintaining general dry and stable conditions throughout the
basin as continues to suppress deep convection from developing.
Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds are evident in the south-
central and southeastern Caribbean, along with seas of 3-6 ft,
except for fresh to strong winds off the coast of Colombia and
Gulf of Venezuela.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge located just north of
the northeastern Caribbean will sustain a moderate trade-wind
regime across the eastern and central Caribbean through the
weekend, except for fresh to strong in the south-central
Caribbean, north of Colombia. Fresh to strong winds will pulse in
the Gulf of Honduras Fri night and Sat night. Moderate northerly
swell related to a frontal boundary currently across the western
Atlantic will enter the Mona Passage and northeastern basin today,
and then spread southward into the southeastern basin through Thu
before dissipating by the weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from near 31N52.5W to 25N62W, where it
becomes a stationary front to central Bahamas and continues
northwestward to the middle Florida Keys. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are north of 28N and east of the front to 50W.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are near and north of
the cold and stationary fronts to near 29N, however, north of the
stationary front and west of 70W scattered to numerous showers
are present. This activity reaches northward to near 29N. Fresh to
strong easterly winds are north of the stationary front, while
mostly fresh northeast winds are northwest of the cold front. Seas
over these waters are 9-11 ft. The remainder of the western
Atlantic behind the cold front is under moderate to fresh
northeast to east winds and seas of 8-10 ft. Moderate to fresh
southwest winds and seas of 6-9 ft are east of the cold front,
especially north of 22N and west of 57W.

The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad
subtropical ridge positioned SW of the Azores. The tight pressure
gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in NW Africa
support fresh to strong northeast winds north of 22N and east of
35W, with the strongest winds occurring north of 24N and east of
30W. Seas over these waters are in the 7-10 ft range. Moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to strong northeast winds north
of the aforementioned stationary front will prevail north of 25N
and west of 68W through this early this evening. Rough seas north
of 25N produced by large northeast swell should gradually subside
tonight. The cold front will continue slowly moving eastward
through Fri, while the stationary front should gradually weaken
and dissipate. In response, winds and seas should subside further
Thu and Fri.

$$
Ramos
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