[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 092307
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Apr 10 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2235 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

SW Atlantic Gale Warning and Significant Swell Event: A strong
cold front is moving across the SW Atlantic and will sink
southeastward over the next few days. A large area of strong to
gale-force N to NE winds and high seas will continue to spread
across the waters N of 25N and W of 65W by Tue. As the front
progresses SE, these conditions will extend westward to the east
coast of Florida through early Tue. The Ocean Prediction Center
has issued a storm-force wind warning for the conditions north of
31N during this event. Seas are peaking near 23 ft. The NE swell
will continue to produce sea heights of 12 ft and greater through
Tue evening. The front is expected to stall along 24N/25N by the
middle of next week.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea near 11N15W to 03N21W. The ITCZ extends from 03N21W to
00N31W and to 01N43W. A surface trough is along 43W, extending
from 01N-09N. Scattered moderate convection is present from 03N to
07N and east of 25W. Similar convection is noted south of 07N and
between 31W to 47W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from Sarasota, Florida to 28N91W, while a
pre-frontal trough is analyzed along 26N and between SW Florida
and 92W. A few showers are seen on satellite imagery within 200 nm
south of the surface trough. The remainder of the Gulf of Mexico
is dominated by a weak 1017 mb high pressure, suppressing the
development of deep convection. Fresh to strong NE winds are found
north of the frontal boundary, east of 92W. Seas in these waters
are 4-7 ft. Moderate to locally fresh winds are evident in the NW
and SW Gulf, along with seas of 3-5 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle
winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

Satellite imagery depict smoke and haze over the southern Gulf
of Mexico and Bay of Campeche from agricultural fires in
southern Mexico and western Central America. The smoke and haze
may be reducing the visibilities.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will move slowly
SE over the central and eastern Gulf through Tue while weakening.
Fresh to locally strong NE-E winds are expected north of the
front in the N-central and NE Gulf through mid-week. Low pres is
expected to develop along the remnants of the front in the central
Gulf Tue, deepen through Wed night, then lift northward and
inland on Thu.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds are affecting the
waters in the south-central and SE Caribbean Sea. The wave heights
in these waters are 5-7 ft. Moderate easterly breezes and seas of 4-6
ft are noted in the remainder of the central and eastern
Caribbean. Light to gentle winds and slight seas are prevalent
elsewhere.

For the forecast, Atlantic high pres centered over the central Atlantic
extends SW to the SE Bahamas, and will support moderate to fresh
trade winds across the basin E of 80W through Wed, pulsing to
strong at night S of 13N. Fresh trades and seas around 8 ft in the
Tropical N Atlc will subside through tonight. Weak high pressure
will then prevail N of the area Mon through mid-week ahead of a
strong cold front that will move across the SW N Atlantic, with
the front stalling along 23N by late Thu. Strong trades will
return the the central Caribbean south of 15N and to the Gulf of
Honduras Thu through Fri.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale
Warning in the SW Atlantic.

A cold front extends from a 1013 mb low pressure near 31N76W to
Vero Beach, Florida. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is
seen within 200 nm ahead of the frontal boundary. Strong to gale
force N-NE winds follow the front, where seas of 12 to 23 ft are
found north of 28N. Moderate to fresh southerly winds and seas of
6-8 ft are evident between 60W and 71W.

A broad subtropical ridge dominates the remainder of the tropical
Atlantic. A surface trough extends from 23N20W to 31N23W. Fresh
to strong N-NE winds are occurring north of 21N and between 20W
and 35W. Seas in the area described are 7-11 ft with the highest
seas near 27N25W. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas
prevail in the rest of the basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, high pressure centered across the
central Atlc will shift NE through mid week as a strong cold
front moves across NW portions of the region. The front extends
from 31N76W to near Vero Beach, Florida this afternoon, with gale-
force winds north of 29.5N behind it. The front will move SE,
reaching from near Bermuda to Palm Beach, Florida late tonight,
and from 31N64W to the Upper Florida Keys by Mon evening. The
gale-force winds will spread SE behind the front, reaching to 28N
and W of 70W early tonight, before diminishing below gale-force
Mon morning. Meanwhile storm- force winds will occur N of 31N.
Very large NE swell producing seas to around 20 ft along 31N will
spread into the regional waters behind the front through Tue. The
front is expected to stall and gradually weaken along 24N by Wed,
then begin to lift northward to the W of 70W Thu.

$$
DELGADO
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net