[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

EMWIN Server emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Sat Apr 8 04:08:05 CDT 2023


AXNT20 KNHC 080907
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Apr 8 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0720 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

SW N Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front is expected to
move offshore of the SE U.S. and NE Florida today through Sun and
progress SE, reaching from near Bermuda to central Florida Sun
evening, and from 31N60W to SE Florida by Mon evening. A large
area of strong to gale-force N to NE winds and very large seas
will build behind the front by Sun evening, spreading across the
waters N of 26N and W of 65W by Tue. OPC has issued a storm force
wind warning for conditions north of 31N during this event. Seas
are currently expected to reach to at least 20 ft near 31N75W Sun
night.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Sierra Leone near 07.5N13W to 02N19W. The ITCZ extends from
02N19W to 00N35W to the coast of Brazil near 02.5S43W. Isolated to
widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 03S to 07N
between 10W and 40W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from near New Orleans, Louisiana to
1015 mb low pressure offshore Brownsville, Texas near 25N95W, then
continuing southward to the western Bay of Campeche near 18.5N95W.
Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms are occurring N of
25N and west of 87W. Winds are fresh to strong offshore Tamaulipas
and Veracruz, Mexico, and moderate to fresh elsewhere W of the
front. Seas are 5-8 ft W of the front. A weak surface trough is
analyzed just west of the Yucatan Peninsula with moderate to fresh
winds just E of it. Gentle to moderate winds and 4-6 ft seas
prevail elsewhere, except 1-3 ft seas in the far NE Gulf.

For the forecast, the front will move slowly eastward over the
western half of the Gulf through Sun. Fresh to locally strong
northerly winds are expected off Veracruz through this evening.
Another low pres, expected to develop just off the SE of United
States tonight, will allow a cold front to move southward over
Florida and the NE Gulf on Sun. Fresh to locally strong E winds
are expected behind the front in the N-central and NE Gulf through
mid-week. Low pres may develop along the remnants of the front in
the N central Gulf Tue and deepen through Wed.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Showers and thunderstorms extend south from the eastern Dominican
Republic, Mona Passage, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands to 15N
due to a broad inverted trough from the NW Dominican Republic NE.
Fresh to strong NE winds are just offshore in the S-central
Caribbean, as well as in the SE Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds
are elsewhere in the central and eastern Caribbean, as well as in
the lee of Cuba, with moderate NE-E winds across the remainder of
the basin. Seas are 4-7 ft in the central and eastern Caribbean,
and 3-5 ft in the western Caribbean.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds in the S-central
Caribbean will pulse at night through the next several days.
Similar winds in the eastern Caribbean and Tropical N Atlc
supported by the trough and high pres N of the area will linger
through this morning before diminishing as the trough shifts W and
weakens. Seas of 7-10 ft in the Tropical N Atlc will subside by
the end of the weekend. Weak high pressure will prevail N of the
for the end of the weekend through next Wed ahead of a strong cold
front well to the N.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale
Warning in the SW N Atlantic.

A broad surface trough extends from the NW Dominican Republic
near 20N71W to 31N65W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
noted east of the trough from 18N to 29N between 62W and the
trough axis. W of the trough axis, winds are moderate from the
NE-E, with seas of 4-7 ft. E of the trough axis, winds are fresh
from the E-SE, with 6-10 ft seas S of about 27N and W of 40W. In
the central Atlantic, 1026 high pressure is centered near 31N52W
with gentle to moderate winds N of 25N. Similar winds prevail
across the remainder of the open Atlantic waters. Seas of 7-9 ft
in NW-N swell are N of 29N between 28W and 42W associated with a
cold front which reaches from 31N24W to 28N33W. Seas of 4-7 ft
prevail across the remainder of the open Atlantic waters.

For the forecast W of 55W, the trough shift W and weaken through
Sun, while reaching the central Bahamas. Winds and seas across the
region will gradually diminish through Sun as the high pres
weakens. A strong cold front is expected to move offshore of the
SE U.S. and NE Florida today through early Sun, and sink SE across
NW portions, reaching from near Bermuda to central Florida Sun
evening, and from 31N60W to SE Florida by Mon evening. A large
area of strong to gale-force N to NE winds, storm-force just N of
31N, and significant NE swell will build into the area behind the
front, spreading across the waters N of 26N and W of 65W by Tue.
The front may stall along 25N/26N by the middle of next week.

$$
Lewitsky
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