[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041736
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Apr 4 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The strong pressure gradient between
the Atlantic ridge and lower pressure over northern Colombia is
supporting NE to ENE near-gale to gale winds at night within 90 nm
of the coastal city of Barranquilla, Colombia through tonight.
Seas will reach at 10 to 12 ft in the strongest winds. Please
read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters
Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshore.php for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean at the coast of
Sierra Leone near 07N12W and continues to 02N26W. The ITCZ extends
from 02N26W to 02S36W to the coast of Brazil near 02N45W.
Scattered moderate convection is from the equator north to 05N
between 25W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Fresh SE to S return flow (locally strong in the Bay of Campeche)
continues across the Gulf of Mexico west of 90W, with 5-7 ft
seas. East of 90W, return flow is gentle to moderate and seas are
3-5 ft.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds are expected to pulse at
night off the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche through
Thu. Fresh to strong return flow will prevail across the W half of
the Gulf through Wed, ahead of the next cold front. The front is
expected to move into the NW Gulf Wed afternoon and stall across
NW portion, where it will meander through Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for more details about a
Gale Warning.

Fresh to strong trades persist in the central Caribbean. 6-8 ft
seas prevail in the central Caribbean, with 8-11 ft seas currently
analyzed in the GALE WARNING AREA. Moderate to fresh trades
continue in the E Caribbean, with seas of 4-6 ft. In the W
Caribbean, trades are gentle to moderate with 2-4 ft seas, except
in the Gulf of Honduras where trades are fresh and seas are 4-7
ft.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between surface ridging
in the north Atlantic and low pressure over NW Colombia will
support fresh to near gale-force winds in the central and portions
of the SW Caribbean through Thu night. Winds near the coast of
Colombia will pulse to gale-force tonight. Fresh to strong winds
are expected to pulse in the Windward Passage and in the Gulf of
Honduras through Thu. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse
at night in the lee of Cuba today through Fri. Moderate to fresh
trades will continue in the E Caribbean through the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Generally fair weather conditions are analyzed across the tropical
Atlantic, with a strong subtropical ridge dominating the area.
North of 15N and east of 47W, seas are 8-12 ft in N swell with
fresh NE winds. In the W Atlantic, trades are light to gentle with
3-6 ft seas. Elsewhere in remaining waters, trades are gentle to
moderate with 4-7 ft seas.

For the forecast W of 55W, surface ridging covers the subtropical
Atlantic waters, including the Bahamas, and continues to support
moderate to fresh trade winds S of 24N to the east of the
approaches to the Windward Passage. Winds and seas to 9 ft in this
region will diminish tonight. Fresh to strong winds will continue
between Hispaniola and Turks and Caicos through Thu evening.
Looking ahead, a broad inverted trough is expected to develop
along about 55W Wed night and shift W through Fri. This feature
will enhance winds and seas E of the Bahamas through the end of
the week.

$$
Mahoney
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