[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021040
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Apr 2 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1040 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between strong high
pressure of 1029 mb in the central Atlantic and low pressure over
NW Colombia will support fresh to near gale force winds in the
central and portions of the SW Caribbean through mid-week. Winds
near the coast of Colombia will pulse to gale-force tonight
and Mon night. Seas are expected to peak at 11-13 ft each night
under the strongest winds.

Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A cold front extends from 31N29W
to 21N50W, where it becomes a stationary front and continues to
23N68W. A swell event follows this front, with seas of 12-14 ft
in long period NW swell currently covering the waters N of 26N
between 33W and 48W. This swell event, with a leading edge period
of 14-16 seconds, will continue to spread southward today. Seas
will subside below 12 ft across the NE corner of the forecast area
late on Mon.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea
near 10N15W to 04N19W. The ITCZ extends from 04N19W to 00N30W to
01S45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06S to 03N
between 25W and 45W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Strong high pressure centered over the central N Atlantic extends
a ridge WSW through the western Gulf, thus supporting moderate to
fresh return flow across great portions of the SW gulf. A 1020 mb
high pressure is located over the SE gulf, which is generating
light to gentle variable wind over the eastern half of the basin.
Seas across the gulf fluctuate between 2 to 4 ft, highest W of
90W.

For the forecast, the high pressure will shift eastward ahead of
a cold front that will sink slowly into the N Gulf today and
dissipate across the eastern Gulf tonight. Fresh to locally strong
winds are expected to pulse at night off the Yucatan Peninsula
through the forecast period. High pressure and fresh to locally
strong return flow will prevail across most of the W half of the
Gulf Mon night through Tue night, ahead of the next cold front.
This next front is expected to move into the NW Gulf Wed and stall
across NW and W portions through Thu.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale
Warning in the south-central Caribbean Sea.

The pressure gradient between surface ridging associated with a
strong high pressure centered in the north central Atlantic, and
low pressure over NW Colombia is supporting gale-force winds off
the coast of Colombia where seas are in the 8 to 13 ft. Winds in
the E Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras are moderate to fresh
with seas of 5 to 7 ft.

For the forecast, fresh to near gale force winds will prevail in
the central and portions of the SW Caribbean through Thu night.
Winds near the coast of Colombia will pulse to gale-force each
night through Mon night. Fresh to strong winds are also expected
in the Windward Passage and in the Gulf of Honduras through the
forecast period. Seas to 10 ft in NE swell across the Tropical
North Atlantic waters will gradually subside through Tue.
Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades will continue in the E
Caribbean through the end of the week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details about a
Significant Swell Event at the central and eastern Atlantic.

A cold front extends from 31N30W to 22N50W, where it becomes a
stationary front and continues to 22N65W. No significant
convection is noted near the front. Fresh to strong NE-E winds are
found behind the frontal boundary, mainly 250 nm north of the
front. Seas of 8-16 ft are present behind of the frontal boundary,
primarily east of 65W. The highest seas are evident near 31N44W.
The remainder of the western Atlantic is dominated by a broad
ridge positioned near 33N51W. The pressure gradient between the
ridge and the storm system over the eastern seaboard support
fresh to strong southerly winds north of the NW Bahamas and west
of 65W. Seas in the waters described are 5-8 ft. Fresh to locally
strong easterly breezes and seas of 6-8 ft are prevalent in the
waters north of the eastern Greater Antilles, including the
entrance of the Windward Passage.

Fresh to strong easterly trade winds are affecting the waters
between the Lesser Antilles and 35W. The wave heights in these
waters are 6-9 ft. A tight pressure gradient between the
subtropical ridge and lower pressures over NW Africa sustain fresh
to near gale-force N-NE winds north of 18N and east of 22W. Seas
in the area described are 8-11 ft, with the highest seas off
Morocco. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas
prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, strong high pressure building in the
wake of a front that moved E of the area early in the evening
will continue to produce fresh to locally strong NE to E winds
east of the central and southern Bahamas through tonight. Fresh to
strong southerly winds prevail offshore northeastern Florida in
advance of the next cold front that will move off the coast of the
southeastern U.S. tonight. This cold front will move southeast,
become stationary from near 31N61W to the NW Bahamas by Mon
afternoon, then weaken through Tue night. Expect fresh to strong
winds ahead of the front N of 29N through Sun evening. Otherwise,
fresh to strong winds will continue in the Great Bahama Bank and
between Hispaniola and Turks and Caicos through mid-week.

$$
Ramos
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