[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 012318
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Apr 1 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between strong high
pressure of 1028 mb centered just E of Bermuda and low pressure
over Colombia will support fresh to near gale force winds in the
central and portions of the SW Caribbean through mid-week. Winds
near the coast of Colombia will pulse to gale-force each night
through Mon night. Seas are expected to peak at 11 to 13 ft each
night under the strongest winds.

Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A cold front extends from
31N36W to 22N52W where it becomes stationary to near 23N70W. A
swell event follows this front, with seas of 12 to 15 ft in long
period NW swell currently covering the waters N of 30N between
42W and 56W. This swell event, with a leading edge period of 14
to 16 seconds, will continue to spread southward tonight and Sun.
By Sun morning, seas of 12 to 14 ft are expected to dominate the
waters N of a line from 29N35W to 25N46W to 31N45W. Seas will
subside below 12 ft across the NE corner of the forecast area
late on Mon.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea Bissau near
12N16W to 07N17W. The ITCZ extends from 07N17W to 00N30W to
the coast of Brazil near 01S45W. Convection is limited.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Strong high pressure centered just E of Bermuda extends a ridge
west southwestward to the central Gulf. A 1021 mb high pressure
is analyzed within the ridge just W of SW Florida near 26N83W.
Gentle to moderate southerly winds are noted over the Gulf waters
with seas generally in the 3 to 5 ft range. A cold front is
approaching the NW Gulf with scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are observed
ahead of the front over parts of southern Georgia to SE Louisiana.
This convective activity is also affecting the Florida Panhandle.

For the forecast, the high pressure will shift eastward ahead of
a cold front that will sink slowly into the N Gulf this evening
and dissipate across the eastern Gulf on Sun. Fresh to locally
strong winds are expected to pulse at night off the Yucatan
Peninsula through the forecast period. High pressure and fresh to
locally strong return flow will prevail across most of the W
half of the Gulf Mon night through Tue night, ahead of the next
cold front forecast to move into the NW Gulf Wed and stall across
NW and W portions through Thu.


...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale
Warning in the south-central Caribbean Sea.

The most recent satellite derived wind data indicate fresh to
strong winds over the south-central Caribbean, particularly
south of Jamaica. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds winds are
seen across the regional waters of Puerto Rico and the Virgin
Islands. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds prevail. Seas are 8
to 10 ft over the south-central Caribbean, with seas of 6 to 8 ft
dominating most of the waters S of 18N and E of 82W. Seas of 3
to 5 ft are noted over the NW part of the basin.

Multilayer clouds, with embedded showers, are affecting the
Windward Islands. This is associated with a upper-level trough
that extends from the Anegada Passage to NW Venezuela. Elsewhere,
low-topped trade wind showers are noted.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between strong high
pressure centered just NE of Bermuda and low pressure over
Colombia will support fresh to near gale force winds in the
central and portions of the SW Caribbean through mid-week. Winds
near the coast of Colombia will pulse to gale-force each night
through Mon night. Fresh to strong winds are also expected in the
Windward Passage and in the Gulf of Honduras through the
forecast period. Seas will build to near 10 ft in mixed N and E
swell across the Tropical North Atlantic tonight through Sun
night then gradually subside through Tue.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details about a
Significant Swell Event at the central and eastern Atlantic.

As previously mentioned, a cold front extends from 31N36W to
22N52W where it becomes stationary to near 23N70W. A significant
swell event follows this front. A well defined band of mainly low
clouds with possible showers is related to the front. High
pressure of 1028 mb located E of Bermuda near 31N57W is in the
wake of the front and dominates the western Atlantic, including
Florida and the Bahamas. Seas of 5 to 7 ft are W of 60W and E of
the Bahamas. Based on scatterometer data, fresh to locally
strong NE to E winds are behind the front to about 25N between
50W and 70W. Moderate to fresh trades are noted across the
tropical Atlantic between 40W and the Lesser Antilles with seas
of 5 to 7 ft. A ridge dominates the eastern Atlantic, including
the Madeira and Canary Islands, with a 1029 mb high pressure
located N of the Madeira Islands near 36N16W. An area of 8 to 10
ft seas is near the southern coast of Morocco. Seas of 6 to 8 ft
prevail across most the waters N of the Cabo Verde Islands and E
of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will dissipate
tonight. Strong high pressure building in the wake of the front
will continue to produce fresh to locally strong NE to E winds
north of the front and east of the central and southern Bahamas
through tonight. Fresh to strong southerly winds prevail offshore
northeastern Florida in advance of the next cold front that will
move off the coast of the southeastern U.S. tonight. This cold
front will move southeast, become stationary from near 31N61W to
the NW Bahamas by Mon afternoon, then weaken through Tue night.
Expect fresh to strong winds ahead of the front N of 29N through
Sun evening. Otherwise, fresh to strong winds will continue in
the Great Bahama Bank and between Hispaniola and Turks and Caicos
through mid-week.

$$
GR
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