[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Oct 1 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Post-Tropical Cyclone Ian is centered near 33.9N 79.2W at
30/2100 UTC or 20 nm NW of Myrtle Beach South Carolina moving N
at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Peak seas are
30 ft with seas to 13 ft still affecting the SW N Atlantic waters
N of 29N between 73W and 80W and seas 8 to 11 ft reaching as far
south as 26N and to 71W. Ian is forecast to move farther inland
overnight over eastern South Carolina, move across central North
Carolina early tomorrow and western Virginia by early Sunday. Ian
should continue to weaken overnight and dissipate over western
North Carolina or Virginia late tomorrow. Please read the latest
NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml
and Forecast/ Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more details.

East Atlantic Gale Warning: Meteo-France has issued a Gale Warning
for the Agadir and Tarfaya Zones in the East Atlantic. North winds
of 34-40 kt (Force 8) with gusts are expected through 01/0300 UTC.
Seas are 8-11 ft in N swell. For more information, please see the
latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France at
http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends along 23W, from 04N to 17N, moving W at
10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 13N
between 16W and 31W. This tropical wave has a low (20%) chance of
development through 48 hours and a high (70%) chance of
development through five days.

A tropical wave extends along 37W, from 05N to 18N, moving W at
10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 13N
between 32W and 42W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of W Africa near 17N16W
to 07N24W to 06N30W. Aside from the convection associated with the
tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 09N
between 45W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface high pressure over central-eastern Mexico extends a ridge
eastward to near 90W while generally lower pressure in the wake of
Ian remains over the waters E of 90W. These features are
supporting moderate to locally fresh northerly winds with seas to
5 ft in the western half of the gulf, and winds of the same speed
with seas to 4 ft across the eastern half of the basin.

For the forecast, winds should remain tranquil for the next
several days over the Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A middle to upper level low centered just S of Hispaniola
continues to support scattered showers and tstms across Windward
Passage between E Cuba and Jamaica, and Jamaica southern adjacent
waters. Diffluent flow to the E of the low aloft continue to
support another area of scattered showers and tmsts across the NE
Caribbean. In terms of winds and seas, a weak pressure gradient
continue to support mainly gentle to locally moderate winds,
except over the far NW Caribbean and Nicaragua adjacent waters
where a surface trough supports moderate northerly winds and seas
to 5 ft. Seas elsewhere are in the 1 to 3 ft range.

For the forecast, a surface trough should persist over the NW
Caribbean through Mon. Moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds
are expected west of the trough through tonight. Elsewhere, gentle
to moderate E to SE trades and slight to moderate seas will
persist across the basin.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

For details on Hurricane Ian and impacted waters please refer to
the SPECIAL FEATURES section above. Please also see the SPECIAL
FEATURES section for information on the East Atlantic Gale
Warning.

In NW sections of the Discussion Waters, the extent of 20 kt or
greater SE to S winds associated with the circulation of Hurricane
Ian are occurring north of 26N and west of 70W. Seas greater than
8 ft are NW of a line from 31N72W to 27N80W.

An early season cold front, formed by the broad circulation in the
lee of Hurricane Ian, enters the waters near 31N75W and continues
to the north coast of Cuba near 23N82W. The analyst was quite
pleased with the cool and dry conditions in Miami this morning.

In the East Atlantic near the Cabo Verde Islands, fresh to strong
NE winds were detected by the latest scatterometer pass within an
area from 17N to 21N between 21W and 28W. Seas are 6-8 ft in this
area of fresh to strong winds. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate
anticyclonic flow prevails across the basin with 4-6 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, Hurricane Ian north of the area near
33.2N 79.1W 977 mb at 02 PM EDT moving N at 13 kt. Maximum
sustained winds 75 kt gusts 90 kt. Ian will continue moving toward
the north away from our waters today, and winds and seas should
diminish north of the Bahamas by tomorrow afternoon. An early
season cold front has formed east of Florida in the wake of Ian.
This front should weaken, but be reinforced by another cold front
moving off of the coast of NE Florida on Sun. The combined cold
front should reach from near 31N70W to 25N75W by Mon morning and
dissipate by Tue.

$$
Ramos
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