[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

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Hurricane Ian Local Statement Advisory Number 24
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL  AL092022
1152 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

This product covers Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia

**POTENTIAL FOR EXTREME FLOODING IMPACTS FROM HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
PARTS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA WITH IAN**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Hurricane Watch has been issued and the Storm Surge Watch has
      been upgraded to a Storm Surge Warning for Coastal Camden and
      Coastal Glynn
    - The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm
      Warning for Brantley, Inland Camden, Inland Glynn, Inland
      Nassau, Northeastern Charlton, Wayne, and Western Charlton
    - A Hurricane Watch has been issued for Coastal Duval, Coastal
      Flagler, Coastal Nassau, and Coastal St. Johns

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Storm Surge Warning, Tropical Storm Warning, and Hurricane
      Watch are in effect for Coastal Camden, Coastal Duval, Coastal
      Flagler, Coastal Glynn, Coastal Nassau, and Coastal St. Johns
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Tropical Storm Warning are in effect
      for Eastern Clay, Eastern Putnam, Inland St. Johns, and South
      Central Duval
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Brantley, Central
      Marion, Eastern Marion, Inland Camden, Inland Flagler, Inland
      Glynn, Inland Nassau, Northeastern Charlton, Trout River,
      Wayne, Western Charlton, Western Clay, Western Duval, Western
      Marion, and Western Putnam
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Baker, Bradford,
      Eastern Alachua, Gilchrist, Union, and Western Alachua

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 290 miles south-southwest of Jacksonville FL or about 200
      miles south of Ocala FL
    - 26.3N 82.5W
    - Storm Intensity 155 mph
    - Movement North-northeast or 15 degrees at 9 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Extremely dangerous category 4 Hurricane Ian is moving ashore today
on the southwest Florida coast. The hurricane will track north northeast
today and then northeast to north Thursday and Friday. Weakening is
expected after landfall. Ian could be near hurricane strength
when it moves over the Florida East coast Thursday.

On this track, Ian will make a very close approach to the local area
as it moves northward off the coast Thursday through Friday. Extensive to
potentially extreme flash flood is expected over the area, with the
main areas of concern over northeast Florida to coastal southeast Georgia.

A flood watch is in effect for parts of the area. Increasing rain
chances are expected today and tonight, with more rain and rain squalls
and possibly embedded thunderstorms occurring. Persistent moderate to heavy
rainfall is expected to develop Thursday through Friday morning. Moderate
to possible major river flooding in northeast FL later this week,
especially for the Sante Fe, St Marys, and Black Creek Rivers.

A hurricane watch is now in effect along the coast of northeast FL and
southeast GA, with tropical storm warnings up for portions of
northeast FL and southeast GA. The start of tropical storm winds likely
are to begin later today and tonight, and continue into early Friday.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
devastating impacts across parts of northeast Florida and
north central Florida. Potential impacts include:
    - Extreme rainfall flooding may prompt numerous evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may overwhelmingly overflow their banks
      in many places with deep moving water. Small streams, creeks,
      canals, and ditches may become raging rivers. Flood control
      systems and barriers may become stressed.
    - Flood waters can enter numerous structures within multiple
      communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
      away. Numerous places where flood waters may cover escape
      routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of raging water
      with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become very
      dangerous. Numerous road and bridge closures with some weakened
      or washed out.

Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
significant to extensive impacts across Suwannee Valley of northeast
Florida and southeast Georgia.

* SURGE:
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible significant
impacts across coastal southeast Georgia, coastal northeast Florida,
intracoastal waterway, and the St. Johns River basin. Potential
impacts in this area include:
    - Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by
      waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast.
    - Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become
      weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low
      spots.
    - Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and
      numerous rip currents.
    - Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
      Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected anchorages.

Also, protect against locally hazardous surge having possible limited
impacts across inland Glynn, Nassau, and Camden counties.

* WIND:
Protect against life-threatening wind having possible extensive
impacts across portions of northeast Florida, north central FL,
and southeast Georgia. Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having
      window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural
      damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed.
      Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be
      uninhabitable for weeks.
    - Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
      roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways, and
      access routes impassable.
    - Large areas with power and communications outages.

Also, protect against dangerous wind having possible limited to
significant impacts across the rest of the forecast area.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a dangerous tornado event having possible significant
impacts across parts of Flagler county. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - Several places may experience tornado damage with a few spots
      of considerable damage, power loss, and communications failures.
    - Locations could realize roofs torn off frame houses, mobile
      homes demolished, boxcars overturned, large trees snapped or
      uprooted, vehicles tumbled, and small boats tossed about.
      Dangerous projectiles can add to the toll.

Elsewhere across coastal northeast Florida, north central FL, and coastal
Southeast Georgia, little to no impact is anticipated.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so immediately.

For those not under evacuation orders, assess the risk from wind,
falling trees, and flooding at your location. If you decide to move,
relocate to a safer location nearby. If you do not relocate,
help keep roadways open for those under evacuation orders.

If evacuating, leave with a destination in mind and allow extra
time to get there. Take your emergency supplies kit. Gas up
your vehicle ahead of time.

Let others know where you are going prior to departure. Secure loose
items and pets in the car, and avoid distracted driving.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies
kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your
home or business.

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the
center of the storm.

If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large
trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or
on a boat, plan to move to safe shelter.

If you live in a place particularly vulnerable to flooding, such as
near the ocean or a large inland lake, in a low-lying or poor
drainage area, in a valley, or near an already swollen river, plan to
move to safe shelter on higher ground.

Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with orders that
are issued. Do not needlessly jeopardize your life or the lives of
others.

When securing your property, outside preparations should be concluded
as soon as possible before conditions deteriorate. The onset of
strong gusty winds or flooding can cause certain preparedness
activities to become unsafe.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news
outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes
to the forecast.

There is a threat from tornadoes with this storm. Have multiple ways
to receive Tornado Warnings. Be ready to shelter quickly.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Jacksonville FL around 530 PM this afternoon, or sooner if
conditions warrant.

$$
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