[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

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Hurricane Ian Local Statement Advisory Number 20
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL  AL092022
1142 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

This product covers Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia

**POTENTIAL FOR EXTREME IMPACTS FROM HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF
NORTHEAST FLORIDA WITH IAN**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Tropical Storm Warning are in effect
      for Coastal Duval, Coastal Flagler, Coastal Nassau, Coastal St.
      Johns, Eastern Clay, Eastern Putnam, Inland St. Johns, and
      South Central Duval
    - A Tropical Storm Warning and Storm Surge Watch are in effect
      for Coastal Camden and Coastal Glynn
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Central Marion,
      Eastern Marion, Inland Flagler, Trout River, Western Clay,
      Western Duval, Western Marion, and Western Putnam
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Baker, Bradford,
      Brantley, Eastern Alachua, Gilchrist, Inland Camden, Inland
      Glynn, Inland Nassau, Northeastern Charlton, Union, Wayne,
      Western Alachua, and Western Charlton

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 390 miles south-southwest of Jacksonville FL or about 300
      miles south of Ocala FL
    - 24.9N 82.9W
    - Storm Intensity 120 mph
    - Movement North-northeast or 15 degrees at 10 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Major Hurricane Ian, located over the southeast Gulf of Mexico Tuesday
evening, is expected to move north northeast tonight and Wednesday
while decreasing in forward speed. A turn to the north is expected
Thursday.

On this track, Ian is forecast to move toward southwest Florida
tonight, and make a landfall on the southwest Florida coast Wednesday
afternoon. Maximum winds are currently near 120 mph with higher gusts.

Increasing rain chances are expected late tonight through Wednesday
from south to north, with more rain and rain squalls and possibly
embedded thunderstorms occurring Wednesday night through Friday. Heavy
rainfall with significant to extensive flooding is expected across
parts of northeast FL.

A tropical storm warning and a storm surge warning remain in effect
for the entire northeast Florida coast and the St. Johns River
basin. A tropical storm warning is in effect for coastal Glynn,
coastal Camden, and coastal Nassau counties. A tropical storm warning
is in effect for Duval, Clay, St. Johns, Flagler, Putnam, and Marion
Counties. A tropical storm watch remains in effect for Wayne, inland
Glynn, inland Camden, Brantley, inland Nassau, Baker, Charlton, Union,
Bradford, Alachua, and Gilchrist counties.

The start of tropical storm winds likely are to begin Wednesday night
across north central and northeast Florida, and Thursday morning
over coastal southeast Georgia.

There is a concern for isolated tornadoes across parts of northeast
and north central Florida from Wednesday afternoon through at least
Thursday evening.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
devastating impacts across northeast Florida and north central
Florida. Potential impacts include:
    - Extreme rainfall flooding may prompt numerous evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may overwhelmingly overflow their banks
      in many places with deep moving water. Small streams, creeks,
      canals, and ditches may become raging rivers. Flood control
      systems and barriers may become stressed.
    - Flood waters can enter numerous structures within multiple
      communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
      away. Numerous places where flood waters may cover escape
      routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of raging water
      with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become very
      dangerous. Numerous road and bridge closures with some weakened
      or washed out.

Prepare for life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
limited to extensive impacts across Suwannee Valley of northeast
Florida and parts of southeast Georgia.

* SURGE:
Prepare for life-threatening surge having possible significant
impacts across coastal southeast Georgia, coastal northeast Florida,
and the St. Johns River basin. Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by
      waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast.
    - Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become
      weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low
      spots.
    - Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and
      numerous rip currents.
    - Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
      Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected anchorages.

Also, protect against locally hazardous surge having possible limited
impacts across coastal southeast Georgia, coastal northeast Florida,
and the St. Johns River basin.

* WIND:
Prepare for dangerous wind having possible extensive impacts across
across portions of northeast Florida, north central Florida, and
southeast Georgia. Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage
      to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings
      experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile
      homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight
      objects become dangerous projectiles.
    - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
      numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
      fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access
      routes impassable.
    - Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent
      in areas with above ground lines.

Also, protect against dangerous wind having possible limited to
significant impacts across inland parts of northeast Florida
and southeast Georgia.

* TORNADOES:
Prepare for a tornado event having possible limited impacts across
coastal northeast Florida and southeast Georgia. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

Elsewhere across Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia, little to
no impact is anticipated.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:

Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so immediately.

For those not under evacuation orders, assess the risk from wind,
falling trees, and flooding at your location. If you decide to move,
relocate to a safer location nearby. If you do not relocate,
help keep roadways open for those under evacuation orders.

If evacuating, leave with a destination in mind and allow extra
time to get there. Take your emergency supplies kit. Gas up
your vehicle ahead of time.

Let others know where you are going prior to departure. Secure loose
items and pets in the car, and avoid distracted driving.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:

Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies
kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your
home or business.

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the
center of the storm.

If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large
trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or
on a boat, plan to move to safe shelter.

If you live in a place particularly vulnerable to flooding, such as
near the ocean or a large inland lake, in a low-lying or poor
drainage area, in a valley, or near an already swollen river, plan to
move to safe shelter on higher ground.

Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with orders that
are issued. Do not needlessly jeopardize your life or the lives of
others.

When securing your property, outside preparations should be concluded
as soon as possible before conditions deteriorate. The onset of
strong gusty winds or flooding can cause certain preparedness
activities to become unsafe.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news
outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes
to the forecast.

There is a threat from tornadoes with this storm. Have multiple ways
to receive Tornado Warnings. Be ready to shelter quickly.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Jacksonville FL around 530 AM Wednesday, or sooner
if conditions warrant.

$$
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