[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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WTUS82 KTAE 280314
HLSTAE
FLZ015-034-114-115-118-127-128-134-281115-

Hurricane Ian Local Statement Advisory Number 20
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL  AL092022
1114 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022 /1014 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022/

This product covers eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia

**MAJOR HURRICANE IAN FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Coastal Dixie,
      Coastal Franklin, Coastal Jefferson, Coastal Taylor, Coastal
      Wakulla, and Inland Dixie

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 400 miles south-southeast of Panama City or about 360
      miles south-southeast of Apalachicola
    - 24.9N 82.9W
    - Storm Intensity 120 mph
    - Movement North-northeast or 15 degrees at 10 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

As of 11pm EDT, Hurricane Ian maintains category 3 status while
moving across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. The forecast track has
once again shifted slightly south and east, with landfall along the
southwest Florida coast Wednesday morning, followed by a trek across
central Florida Thursday into Friday.

Although the adjusted track forecast further limits the impacts for
the Tri-state area, Ian's anticipated expanding wind field keeps the
potential for sustained tropical storm winds across the southeast
Florida Big Bend. Gusty winds are also expected elsewhere beginning
Wednesday and persisting through Friday, especially the coastal Big
Bend where occasional gusts to tropical storm force are possible.

A fairly tight rainfall gradient remains forecast on the western side
of Hurricane Ian, with totals continuing to decrease for southeast
Alabama, the western Florida Panhandle, and the western portions of
the Florida Big bend. The latest forecast, widespread rainfall totals
of 1.5 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts possible across the
Florida Big Bend and southwest Georgia. 3 to 6 inches of rainfall is
possible from south central Georgia to the southeast Florida Big Bend.
Rainfall totals are forecast to quickly drop off west of the
Apalachicola and Flint Rivers.

The Hurricane Watch for offshore waters in Apalachee Bay has been
cancelled. Tropical Storm Warnings continue along the coast from
Indian Pass to the Suwannee River where 1 to 3 feet of inundation is
possible beginning Wednesday night.

Forecast confidence has grown as Hurricane Ian continues to track
further south and east. We will continue provide additional details on
Ian over the next several advisory cycles.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
extensive impacts across southeast Florida Big Bend. Potential
impacts include:
    - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
      multiple places. Small streams, creeks, and ditches may become
      dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may become
      stressed.
    - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
      communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
      away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes.
      Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with
      underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous.
      Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.

Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible limited
to significant impacts across portions of eastern Georgia, along and
east of 1-75.

* WIND:
Protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across
the Florida Big Bend and southwest Georgia. Potential impacts in this
area include:
    - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
      mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
    - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
      uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are
      shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on
      bridges and other elevated roadways.
    - Scattered power and communications outages.

Elsewhere across eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend,
southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia, little to no impact is
anticipated.

* SURGE:
Protect against locally hazardous surge having possible limited
impacts across Apalachee Bay Coast from Indian Pass east towards the
Suwanee River. Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along
      immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas
      farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore.
    - Sections of near-shore roads and parking lots become overspread
      with surge water. Driving conditions dangerous in places where
      surge water covers the road.
    - Moderate beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching dunes, mainly
      in usually vulnerable locations. Strong rip currents.
    - Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks,
      and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings.

Elsewhere across eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend,
southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia, little to no impact is
anticipated.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so
immediately.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and
property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a
safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Tallahassee FL around 5 AM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$
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