[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

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Hurricane Ian Local Statement Advisory Number 19
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL  AL092022
538 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

This product covers Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia

**POTENTIAL FOR EXTREME IMPACTS DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF
NORTHEAST FLORIDA WITH IAN**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - The Storm Surge Watch has been upgraded to a Storm Surge
      Warning for Coastal Flagler

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Tropical Storm Warning are in effect
      for Coastal Duval, Coastal Flagler, Coastal Nassau, Coastal St.
      Johns, Eastern Clay, Eastern Putnam, Inland St. Johns, and
      South Central Duval
    - A Tropical Storm Warning and Storm Surge Watch are in effect
      for Coastal Camden and Coastal Glynn
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Central Marion,
      Eastern Marion, Inland Flagler, Trout River, Western Clay,
      Western Duval, Western Marion, and Western Putnam
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Baker, Bradford,
      Brantley, Eastern Alachua, Gilchrist, Inland Camden, Inland
      Glynn, Inland Nassau, Northeastern Charlton, Union, Wayne,
      Western Alachua, and Western Charlton

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 450 miles south-southwest of Jacksonville FL or about 360
      miles south of Ocala FL
    - 24.0N 83.2W
    - Storm Intensity 120 mph
    - Movement North or 10 degrees at 10 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Major Hurricane Ian, located near 24.0 north, 83.2 west at 5 PM EDT
this afternoon, will move north to northeast tonight and Wednesday.

On this track, Ian is forecast to traverse the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico through Wednesday, and make landfall in southwest Florida late
Wednesday. Maximum winds are currently near 120 mph with higher gusts.

A tropical storm warning and a storm surge warning are in effect for
the entire northeast Florida coast and the St. Johns River basin.
A tropical storm warning is in effect for coastal Glynn, coastal
Camden, and coastal Nassau counties. A tropical storm warning
is in effect for Duval, Clay, St. Johns, Flagler, Putnam, and Marion
Counties. A tropical storm watch is in effect for Wayne, inland
Glynn, inland Camden, Brantley, inland Nassau, Baker, Charlton, Union,
Bradford, Alachua, and Gilchrist counties.

Increasing rain chances are expected Wednesday from south to north,
with more rain and rain squalls and possibly embedded thunderstorms
occurring Wednesday night through Friday. Heavy rainfall with
significant to extensive flooding is expected across parts of
northeast FL.

There is a concern for isolated tornadoes across parts of northeast
and north central Florida from Wednesday evening through at least
Thursday evening.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
devastating impacts across northeast Florida and north central
Florida. Potential impacts include:
    - Extreme rainfall flooding may prompt numerous evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may overwhelmingly overflow their banks
      in many places with deep moving water. Small streams, creeks,
      canals, and ditches may become raging rivers. Flood control
      systems and barriers may become stressed.
    - Flood waters can enter numerous structures within multiple
      communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
      away. Numerous places where flood waters may cover escape
      routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of raging water
      with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become very
      dangerous. Numerous road and bridge closures with some weakened
      or washed out.

Prepare for life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
limited to extensive impacts across Suwannee Valley of northeast Florida
and parts of southeast Georgia.

* SURGE:
Prepare for life-threatening surge having possible significant impacts
across coastal southeast Georgia, coastal northeast Florida,
and the St. Johns River basin. Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by
      waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast.
    - Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become
      weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low
      spots.
    - Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and
      numerous rip currents.
    - Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
      Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected anchorages.

Also, protect against locally hazardous surge having possible limited
impacts across coastal southeast Georgia, coastal northeast Florida,
and the St. Johns River basin.

* WIND:
Prepare for life-threatening wind having possible extensive impacts
across extensive impacts across portions of northeast Florida, north
central Florida, and southeast Georgia. Potential impacts in this area
include:
    - Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having
      window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural
      damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed.
      Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be
      uninhabitable for weeks.
    - Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
      roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways, and
      access routes impassable.
    - Large areas with power and communications outages.

Also, protect against dangerous wind having possible limited to
significant impacts across northeast Florida, north central Florida,
and southeast Georgia.

* TORNADOES:
Prepare for a tornado event having possible limited impacts across
northeast Florida and southeast Georgia. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended
preparedness actions, including possible evacuation. If ordered to
evacuate, do so immediately.

For those not under evacuation orders, assess
the risk from wind, falling trees, and flooding at your location. If
you decide to move, relocate to a safer location nearby. If you do
not relocate, help keep roadways open for those under evacuation
orders.

If evacuating, leave with a destination in mind and allow extra
time to get there. Take your emergency supplies kit. Gas up
your vehicle ahead of time.

Let others know where you are going prior to departure. Secure loose
items and pets in the car, and avoid distracted driving.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies
kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your
home or business.

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the
center of the storm.

If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large
trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or
on a boat, plan to move to safe shelter.

If you live in a place particularly vulnerable to flooding, such as
near the ocean or a large inland lake, in a low-lying or poor
drainage area, in a valley, or near an already swollen river, plan to
move to safe shelter on higher ground.

Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with orders that
are issued. Do not needlessly jeopardize your life or the lives of
others.

When securing your property, outside preparations should be concluded
as soon as possible before conditions deteriorate. The onset of
strong gusty winds or flooding can cause certain preparedness
activities to become unsafe.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news
outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes
to the forecast.

There is a threat from tornadoes with this storm. Have multiple ways
to receive Tornado Warnings. Be ready to shelter quickly.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Jacksonville FL around 1130 PM, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$
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