[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 230549
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Fiona, located less than 200 miles west of Bermuda, and on Tropical
Storm Gaston, located less than 200 miles northwest of the central
Azores.

Central Caribbean Sea:
Satellite imagery indicates that showers and thunderstorms have
increased and are showing signs of organization tonight with a
well-defined low pressure system located over the central Caribbean
Sea about 100 miles north-northeast of Curacao. Even though the
upper-level wind environment is currently only marginally favorable,
only a small additional increase in organization would result in the
formation of a tropical depression later today. The system is
expected to continue moving west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
across the central and western Caribbean Sea.  Locally heavy
rainfall and gusty winds are likely to affect northwestern
Venezuela, the ABC island chain, and northeastern Colombia through
Friday.  Interests in Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba
should closely monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A broad area of low pressure, located roughly in between the Cabo
Verde islands to the east and the west coast of Africa, is producing
a large area of showers and thunderstorms. While this activity is
gradually becoming better organized, earlier satellite wind data
indicated the circulation remained fairly broad. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for some
development over the next day or so, and a tropical depression is
likely to form by this weekend while the system moves northward at
about 10 mph, parallel to the coast of west Africa.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized association
with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Despite marginal
environmental conditions, some slow development of this system
remains possible over the next several days while it drifts
northwestward or northward over the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin
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