[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230339
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Sep 23 2022...Updated

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2245 UTC.

...Updated Special Features Section...

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Fiona is centered near 31.9N 68.1W at 23/0300 UTC or
170 nm W of Bermuda moving NNE at 18 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 932 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 115 kt with
gusts to 140 kt. Numerous strong convection is within 120 nm of
the center in the E semicircle and 60 nm W semicircle. Scattered
to numerous moderate with isolated strong convection is occurring
elsewhere within 360 nm NE quadrant, 240 nm SE quadrant and 180 nm
W semicircle. Seas of 12 ft or higher are occurring within 240 nm
NE quadrant, 330 nm SE quadrant and 300 nm W semicircle. On the
forecast track, the center of Fiona will pass just to the west of
Bermuda overnight. Fiona's center will then approach Nova Scotia
on Friday. Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the Turks and
Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, the southeastern United States coast,
and Bermuda. These swells will continue to spread northwestward
across the western Atlantic toward the mid-Atlantic and northeast
coasts of the United States and Atlantic Canada tonight and on
Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for
more details.

Tropical Storm Gaston is centered near 41.0N 31.0W at 23/0300 UTC
or 180 nm NW of Faial Island in the central Azores, moving E at 10
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Scattered to
numerous moderate convection is noted within 210 nm of the center
in the NE quadrant, 150 nm SE quadrant and 120 nm NW quadrant. On
the forecast track, the center of Gaston will move near or over
portions of the Azores tonight through early Saturday. Swells
generated by Gaston are expected to affect portions of the Azores
through Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please read the
latest High Seas Forecast issued by the Ocean Prediction Center at
website https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php and the
latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE...
A tropical wave extends its axis along 66W across the eastern
Caribbean. A 1006 mb low is analyzed along the wave near 12N66W.
The environment is forecast to become more conducive
for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form in the
next day or so. The low is forecast to move west-northwestward and
be over the central Caribbean this weekend where conditions are
expected to be conducive for additional development. Locally heavy
rainfall and gusty winds are likely to affect northern Venezuela,
the ABC island chain, and northeastern Colombia this evening.
Interests in Jamaica should closely monitor the progress of this
system. This system has a high chance for tropical development
within the next 48 hours.

...ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE...
A tropical wave extends its axis along 19W across the eastern
Atlantic. A 1006 mb low is analyzed along the wave near 15N19W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm of the center
of the low. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive
for some development, and a tropical depression could form by this
weekend while the system moves slowly northward, between west
Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands. This system has a medium chance
for tropical development within the next 48 hours.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information
about the tropical waves.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the eastern Africa coast near
15N16W to 08N39W. The ITCZ continues from 08N39W to 05N53W. Aside
from the convection related to the tropical wave described in the
section above, scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of a
1010 mb surface low that is embedded in the monsoon trough near
11N34W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad anticyclonic wind flow prevails a cross most of the basin.
over the western Gulf, a surface trough extends from 25N97W to
21N91W. Gentle to moderate N to NE winds are in the northern half
of the basin, and in the far SW Gulf. Light to gentle winds
prevail elsewhere. Sea heights are ranging between 2-4 ft.

For the forecast...A relatively weak pressure gradient across the
Gulf waters will support mainly gentle to locally moderate winds
and slight seas through the upcoming weekend. A weak cold front
will reach the the NE waters on Fri. On Mon, wind and seas could
begin to increase across the Yucatan Channel as a possible
tropical cyclone approaches from the NW Caribbean.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for more information
about the eastern Caribbean tropical wave with tropical
development potential.

A surface trough extends from the NW Caribbean near 19N88W to
13N75W. Light to gentle variable winds, and sea heights ranging
between 1-3 ft prevail across the basin outside of the tropical
wave/low system.

Fore the forecast...the tropical wave/low is forecast to move
west-northwestward and be over the central Caribbean Sea this
weekend where conditions are expected to be conducive for
additional development. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are
likely to affect northern Venezuela, the ABC island chain, and
northeastern Colombia tonight. Interests in Jamaica should
closely monitor the progress of this system.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information
about Hurricane Fiona, the tropical wave with tropical
development potential, and T.S. Gaston.

A surface ridge prevails across most of the basin, extending from
a 1023 mb high pressure centered near 34N39W. Moderate easterly
winds prevail across the area, with sea heights reaching 6 ft at a
maximum. The exception is fresh to locally strong N to NE winds,
and the sea heights reaching 8 ft between the Cabo Verde Islands
and W Africa.

For the forecast...Hurricane Fiona will be north of area near
32.8N 67.3W by Fri morning. Swells generated by Fiona will
continue to spread northwestward across the western Atlantic
toward the mid-Atlantic and northeast coasts of the United States
over the next day or so. A cold front will drop south over the
north waters early on Fri through Sat night followed by fresh
northeast winds and building seas. High pressure will build in
behind the cold front.

$$
Hagen
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