[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140915
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Sep 14 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

Discussion updated at 0700 UTC to account for the increased
tropical cyclone development potential described in the special
features section.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Tropical Atlantic: A strong tropical wave extends along
48W/49W from 04N to 21N, moving west at 12 kt. A 1010 mb low
pressure center is analyzed near 16N48W along this wave. Numerous
moderate convection is observed from 13N to 20N between 44W and
50W. Fresh to strong easterly winds and 8-11 ft seas are observed
along the northern half of this wave. Although environmental
conditions are only marginally conductive, some additional
development of this system is possible and a tropical depression
could form during the next couple of days. This system is expected
to move westward to west- northwestward over the tropical
Atlantic and it is expected to be near the Leeward Islands on
Friday. The current outlook assigns a medium chance of development
through 48 hours and a medium chance through 5 days.
Refer to the Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the NHC at:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 28W, just west of
the Cabo Verde Islands, from 04N to 21N, moving west at around 10
kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed
from 09N to 16N, between 27W and 31W. Moderate to fresh winds and
seas of 6-8 ft are found mainly around the northern half of the
tropical wave.

A Caribbean tropical wave extends along 75W, from over Colombia
near 04N to eastern Cuba at 21N, moving west at around 10 kt.
Scattered weak convection is observed through the Windward
Passage, southeast of Jamaica, and from 07N to 13N between 71W and
77W including over portions of northern Colombia and NW
Venezuela.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near
18N16W to 07N39W. In addition to convection associated with
tropical waves, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection
is observed from 05N to 10N, between 32W and 40W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak cold front extends from just south of Apalachee Bay,
Florida to 28N88W, continuing as stationary to just south of
Galveston Bay, Texas. Upper-level divergent flow south of the
boundary is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms across
the Gulf, south of 28N. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient is
supporting gentle to moderate winds and 1-3 ft seas across the
basin.

For the forecast, the weak front will completely stall again by
late today before dissipating. Later in the week, high pressure
will build over the southeast U.S. following the front,
maintaining gentle to moderate easterly breezes and slight seas
into the weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level low near Turks and Caicos is supporting scattered
moderate convection in the Caribbean between 77W and 85W.
Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient between subtropical high
pressure and lower pressure over the SW Caribbean is supporting
moderate to fresh easterly trade winds across the central and
eastern Caribbean, as well as offshore Honduras. Gentle to
moderate trades are elsewhere across the NW Caribbean, with light
to gentle winds in the SW Caribbean south of 11N. Seas are 3-5 ft
in the central and eastern Caribbean, and 1-3 ft in the NW
Caribbean, except 3 to 5 ft offshore Honduras. Slightly higher
seas are also noted through Atlantic passages in decaying N-NE
swell.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds, locally fresh, and
slight to moderate seas will persist over the Caribbean today as a
tropical wave moves from the central to western Caribbean. Winds
and seas will increase somewhat from east to west starting tonight
over the central Caribbean as high pressure builds north of the
area in the wake of the tropical wave. Northerly swell moving
through the Atlantic passages will gradually subside through
tonight. Another tropical wave will into the eastern Caribbean
Fri, and reach the central Caribbean by Sat, and then the western
Caribbean late Sun into early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad upper-level low over the Turks and Caicos is inducing
scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Bahamas and
surrounding waters in the western Atlantic, along with the
northern portion of a tropical wave near eastern Cuba. A surface
trough is in the region too, extending from 29N67W to near the
central Bahamas at 25N78W. A high pressure centered southeast of
Bermuda near 31N61W is supporting gentle to moderate anticyclonic
flow with 5-7 ft seas, comprised primarily of northerly swell,
across the waters north of 23N.

A weak cold front extends across the central Atlantic from north
of 31N42W to 27N50W where it stalls. Scattered thunderstorms are
observed north of 29N within 75 nm along and east of the front.
Gentle to moderate westerlies are observed behind this feature,
with moderate SE winds ahead. Seas are generally 6-9 ft in the
region, with stronger winds and higher seas near the tropical wave
described above. Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, gentle to
moderate winds and 5-7 ft seas dominate.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate northerly swell east of
the Bahamas is expected to subside through today, mainly west of
65W. The northern end of a tropical wave will pass 55W south of
22N by early Fri, bringing at least fresh to strong E winds and
locally rough seas to the area northeast of the northern Leeward
Islands. The wave may weaken as it continues westward toward the
Turks and Caicos Islands and southern Bahamas through Sat. Looking
ahead, a cold front may move into the waters off northeast
Florida and stall by the end of the week into the weekend.

$$
Lewitsky
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