[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121705
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Sep 12 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1655 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has been introduced off the coast of Africa based
on satellite imagery, Hovmoller diagrams and wave guidance. The
trough axis is along 19W, south of 21N and moving W at 15 kt.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring from
06N to 17N and E of 22W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 43W, south of
21N, moving W at 15-20 kt. A recent scatterometer satellite pass
captured the strong wave, showing a sharp trough and fresh NE
winds from 15N to 23W and between 36W and 44W. Seas in these
waters are 6-8 ft. Scattered moderate convection is observed on
satellite imagery from 07N to 18N and between 33W and 47W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 64W, south
of 21N, moving W at 15-20 kt. No deep convection is associated
with this feature.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 14N17W to 14N35W to 04N51W. Scattered moderate
convection is present from 04N to 09N and between 23W and 30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front has entered the NW Gulf of Mexico, extending from the
coast of southern Louisiana near 30N92W to SE Texas near 27N97W.
Farther east, a surface trough stretches from NW Florida near
30N87W to the Bay of Campeche near 18N94W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed to the east of the trough axis, primarily
within 120 nm. Gentle to moderate N-NE winds are occurring west of
the surface trough, except for locally fresh N winds in the W Bay
of Campeche, offshore Veracruz. Seas are 2-4 ft west of the
surface trough. Light to gentle southerly winds are occurring
east of the surface trough, along with seas of 1-3 ft.

For the forecast, a surface trough extending from near Panama
City, Florida to Coatzacoalcos, Mexico will linger over the
central Gulf into mid week, ahead of a cold front moving into the
northern Gulf later today. The weak cold front will shift slowly
south then stall from near Tampa, Florida to Corpus Christi, Texas
by mid week then dissipate.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two upper level lows located north of the Caribbean Sea are
helping to induce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in
the north-central portion of the basin. A few other showers also
dot the waters of the NW Caribbean, while a few storms are noted
within 60 nm of the coasts of Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama.
The eastern Caribbean is under a dry airmass that is suppressing
the storm activity. A weak pressure regime north of the basin
sustains moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds in the
south-central Caribbean, while moderate or weaker winds are found
elsewhere. Seas of 3-4 ft are occurring in the south-central
Caribbean and 1-3 ft in the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas
will persist into Tue over the Caribbean as a tropical wave
moves across the eastern and central portions of the basin.
Winds and seas will start to increase from east to west starting
late Tue as high pressure builds north of the area in the wake
of the tropical wave. Northerly swell will propagate through the
Atlantic passages early on Tue and will gradually subside late
Wed. Looking ahead, another tropical wave will approach the
Leeward and Windward Islands by Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N46W and
continues to 27N53W, where it transitions into a dissipating
stationary front that meanders westward to 26N73W and then
northwestward to 31N75W. A few showers are noted within 60 nm of
the frontal boundaries, mainly to the south. Fresh southerly winds
are evident on satellite-derived wind data ahead of the cold
front, mainly N of 29N and W of 40W. Northerly swell associated
with the remnants of former Hurricane Earl are generating seas of
8-10 ft N of 22N and between 40W and 74W.

A surface trough in the central Atlantic extends from 24N54W to
17N54W and a few showers are noted near the trough axis. In the
eastern Atlantic, the remnants of former Hurricane Danielle are
located a couple hundred miles east of Portugal and are generating
a large swell region that extends into the tropical Atlantic.
Seas of 8-11 ft are found N of 27N and E of 31W. Moderate to
locally fresh northerly winds are noted N of 15N and E of 31W.
Seas of 5-8 ft are present N of 15N and E of 31W. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and seas of 3-6 ft prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, northerly swell of 8 to 12 ft is
spreading across the waters east of the Bahamas. The swell is
expected to subside into mid week. Looking ahead, the northern end
of a tropical wave will pass 55W south of 22N by Thu, bringing
fresh E winds and locally rough seas to the area northeast of the
northern Leeward Islands.

$$
DELGADO
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