[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120839
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Sep 12 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0730 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic Ocean along 42W, from
20N southward, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection covers a vast area from 07N to 19N
between 31W and 46W.

A tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean along 62W/63W, from
21N southward across eastern Venezuela, moving west at 15 to 20
kt. No deep convection is noted over water, however scattered
moderate and isolated strong covers much of Venezuela west of the
tropical wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal
near 13N17W to 11N21W to 14N31W to near the coast of Brazil at
03N51W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
noted from 09N to 17N between the coast of Africa and 21W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 08N between 17W
and 29W, and from 06N to 08N between 47W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is analyzed from near Mobile, Alabama to 19N91W.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted south of 20N
between 92W and 96W, with isolated to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms east of the trough with the majority of the
thunderstorms currently near and north of the Yucatan Channel.
Mainly gentle to moderate winds cover the basin on either side of
the trough. Seas are 2-4 ft east of the trough and mainly 1-2 ft
west of the trough, higher in an any convection.

For the forecast, the surface trough will linger over the central
Gulf into mid week, ahead of a cold front moving into the
northern Gulf later today. The weak cold front will shift slowly
south then stall from near Tampa, Florida to Corpus Christi, Texas
by mid week then dissipate.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave has entered the eastern Caribbean and is described
more above. Scattered thunderstorms are noted from Haiti
westward to between Jamaica, with similar convection near the
coast of NW Colombia, in the Gulf of Honduras, and also offshore
southern Nicaragua. Moderate to locally fresh winds are in the
Gulf of Honduras and south-central Caribbean, as well as through
the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere. Seas
are 3-5 ft in the areas of strongest winds, and 2-4 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate
seas will persist into Tue over the Caribbean as a tropical wave
moves across the eastern and central portions of the basin. Winds
and seas will start to increase from east to west starting late
Tue as high pressure builds north of the area in the wake of the
tropical wave. Northerly swell will propagate through the Atlantic
passages early on Tue and will gradually subside late Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N49W to 25N63W to 26N70W where it
becomes stationary to 31N74W. Northeasterly swell of 8 to 12 ft
is evident 25N/26N east of 71W. Fresh to strong southerly winds
were noted ahead of the front by earlier scatterometer data, north
of 29N to about 40W. A 1018 mb high is analyzed near the northern
Bahamas at 28N77W with a ridge axis reaching southeast-east
ahead of the cold front to 50W. Gentle to locally moderate winds
are found under the ridge across this area, along with seas of 4-7
ft.

A cold front is moving toward the NW Canary Islands with moderate
to fresh winds near it, and seas of 8 ft or greater in NW swell
behind it. Moderate to fresh trades are noted from 14N to 20N
between 35W and 41W near a tropical wave described more above,
along with seas to 7 ft. Fresh to locally strong N-NE winds are
from 18N to 22N between the coast of Africa and 22W per earlier
scatterometer data, and ahead of the next emerging tropical wave,
along with seas to 8 ft. Winds are mainly gentle to moderate
elsewhere, along with 4-7 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the front will continue to move
southward to 24N east of 65W through today, then stall and
dissipate through late tonight into Tue. The swell will spread
across the open waters east of the Bahamas through late tonight,
then subside into mid week. Looking ahead, the northern end of a
tropical wave will pass 55W south of 22N by Thu, bringing fresh E
winds and locally rough seas to the area northeast of the northern
Leeward Islands.

$$
Lewitsky
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