[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110836
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Sep 11 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean along 36W/37W, from 21N
southward, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted from 13N to 18N between 30W
and 35W, and from 05N to 12N between 30W and 41W.

A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean along 56W, from 23N
southward to Suriname, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 06N to 08N between 51W and 58W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis passes through the coastal plains of
Senegal near 15N17W to 10N30W to 05N39W. The ITCZ continues from
05N39W to 08.5N53W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 11W and 22W, and from
05N to 08N between 41W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A persistent and deep-layered trough extends from near the border
of Mississippi and Alabama south-southwest to the SW Gulf and
Mexico near 18N92W. Moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds are
east of the trough, along with seas of 3-5 ft, and isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Gentle to moderate E to SE
winds and 1-2 ft seas are west of the trough.

For the forecast, the surface trough extending from the north-
central to SW Gulf linger through the early part of the week
before dissipating. Moderate to fresh southerly winds ahead of the
trough and in deep convection will continue through the remainder
of the weekend, locally higher in and near convection east of the
trough. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds will prevail basin-wide
Wed and Thu as high pressure north of the area becomes
established.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A ridge of high pressure just north of the Greater Antilles
combined with lower pressure over northern Colombia is supporting
fresh to strong NE to E winds and 5-7 ft seas in the south-central
Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to locally
fresh trades are elsewhere from 11N to 18N west of 64W, with
gentle to moderate trades elsewhere. Seas are 3-5 ft elsewhere in
the central Caribbean, 1-3 ft in the SW Caribbean, and 2-4 ft
across the remainder of the basin, locally 5 ft offshore Honduras.
Active convection with frequent lightning is noted in the SW
Caribbean along the extension of the eastern Pacific Ocean monsoon
trough.

For the forecast, mainly moderate E to SE winds will prevail
across the basin through tonight, except for fresh to locally
strong winds in the south-central Caribbean and offshore eastern
Honduras where winds will be fresh to strong at night. Trade winds
are forecast to increase to fresh speeds in the eastern and
central Caribbean Tue through Thu as a tropical wave moves across
the area, occasionally and locally strong. Northerly swell will
propagate through the Atlantic passages early on Tue and will
gradually subside late Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1020 mb high is centered near 25N75W with a ridge extending NW
to the southeastern United States, and east-northeast to 26N50W.
Light to gentle anticyclonic winds are found under the ridge. A
cold front extends from 31N53W to 28N62W to 31N73W, with isolated
thunderstorms near portions of the front. Fresh to strong S to SW
winds are noted north of 29N between 44W and 53W. Building
northerly swell is arriving in the wake of the front with seas of
7-10 ft currently behind it.

A 1020 mb high is centered near 29N36W with a ridge extending to
near the Canary Islands. A cold front is located northwest of the
Canary Islands with some scattered showers ahead of it. Fresh to
strong northerly winds are noted offshore Mauritania and Western
Sahara to 20W from 18N to 23N, along with 6-7 ft seas. Moderate
to fresh trades and 6-7 ft seas are noted from 14N to 24N between
26W and 42W. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and 4-6 ft seas are
found across the remainder of the tropical Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, weak high pressure ridging will
prevail from along 23N northwest to just northeast of the the
Bahamas through today. A cold front extending from 29N55W to
28N62W to 31N73W will extend from 27N55W to 25N66W this afternoon,
and dissipate on Mon. Northeasterly swell will follow the front,
and spread across the area waters through Tue, decaying Wed. A
trough or weak front may move into the waters offshore NE Florida
midweek.

$$
Lewitsky
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