[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090559
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Sep 9 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
The center of Hurricane Earl, at 09/0300 UTC, is near 31.3N
63.7W. This position also is about 150 km/81 nm to the southeast
of Bermuda. Earl is north-northeast, 030 degrees, 13 knots. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 80 knots with gusts to 100 knots.
Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 225 nm of
the center in the NE quadrant. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is within 300 nm of the center in the NW quadrant.
Isolated moderate to locally strong is within 480 nm of the
center in the eastern semicircle, and within 540 nm of the center
in the SW quadrant. Tropical storm force winds are within: 140 nm
of the center in the NE QUADRANT...160 nm of the center in the SE
quadrant...120 nm of the center in the SW quadrant...and 100 nm
of the center in the NW quadrant. The sea heights of 12 feet or
greater are within: 240 nm NE and SW quadrants...210 nm NW
quadrant, and 270 nm SE quadrant. The maximum sea heights are
reaching 42 feet. The hazards that are or will be affecting land
are: tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda overnight;
Earl is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches (25
to 75 mm) in Bermuda through Friday; Swells generated by Earl are
affecting Bermuda and are expected to reach the U.S. east coast
tonight. It is likely for these swells to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions through the weekend. Please
consult bulletins and charts that are from your local weather
office. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml, for more details.

A tropical wave is along 43W/44W, from 21N southward, moving
westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. A 1008 mb low pressure center
is along the tropical wave near 19.5N. Gale-force winds, and sea
heights that range from 12 feet to 15 feet in E to SE swell, are
from 21N to 23N between 41W and 43W. Expect the wind speeds to
range from 20 knots to 30 knots, and the sea heights to range from
8 feet to 14 feet in E swell, from 19N to 24N between 38W and 46W.
Expect for the rest of the area that is from 18N to 24N between
37W and 45W, the wind speeds will be less than 20 knots, and the
sea heights will range from 8 feet to 10 feet in E swell.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
within 450 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. The precipitation
is being displaced well to the northeast of the circulation center
by strong upper level winds. A middle level to upper level trough
is to the northwest of the 1008 mb low pressure center, from 360
nm away to 520 nm away. No significant deep convective
precipitation is associated with the middle level to upper level
trough. The environmental conditions appear to be only marginally
conducive for additional development. An increase in organization
of the system still may result in the formation of a short-lived
tropical cyclone in the next day or so, as it moves westward to
west- northwestward 15 to 20 mph, in the central sections of the
tropical Atlantic Ocean. The environmental conditions are forecast
to become less conducive for development, by the weekend. The
chance for formation into a tropical cyclone during the next 48
hours is medium. Please, refer to the High Seas Forecasts, that is
issued by the National Weather Service, for more information,
including for gale-force wind warnings.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 25W/26W, from 16N
southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 330 nm to the
west of the tropical wave, from 04N to 10N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal
near 16N17W, to 12N26W, through the 1008 mb low pressure center
that is along the 43W/44W tropical wave and one of the subjects
that is for the Special Features section, to 17N54W.
Precipitation: scattered strong is from 14N to 16N between Senegal
and 18W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A middle level to upper level trough is in the western half of the
Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough extends from the Florida Big
Bend, to the central sections of the Gulf of Mexico, to the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Comparatively drier air
in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery in the western
Gulf of Mexico with the trough. Precipitation: scattered moderate
to widely scattered strong in clusters covers the areas that are
from South Florida and the Florida Keys, to the Yucatan Peninsula,
to parts of eastern Guatemala and the western half of Honduras,
and westward through the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern
Mexico, to inland Mexico that is from 20N southward between 100W
and 105W.

A rather weak surface pressure gradient supports light to gentle
northerly winds to the north and west of the trough, and moderate
southwest winds to the east of the trough in the southeastern
part of the Gulf of Mexico. The sea heights range from 1 foot to 2
feet everywhere.

A weak pressure pattern will continue to dominate the Gulf waters
through tonight, producing gentle to locally moderate winds and
slight seas across the basin. A surface trough extends from the NE
Gulf to the SW Gulf. This trough is producing scattered showers
and thunderstorms. The trough will migrate NW toward the north-
central Gulf early Fri and induce a fresh southerly return flow
across the eastern half of the basin Fri night into Sat night.
Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish through Sun as the
trough weakens and shifts west ahead of high pressure building
over the northeast Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The surface pressure gradient is flat and weak. A weak Atlantic
Ocean surface ridge that is to the north of the area is being
disrupted by Hurricane Earl. Earl is currently well to the north
of the area. This pattern will maintain gentle to moderate breezes
and slight seas across most of the Caribbean Sea.

The monsoon trough is along 10N75W in Colombia, through southern
Nicaragua, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated
moderate from 16N southward from 70W westward.

Precipitation: isolated moderate is elsewhere in the remainder of
the Caribbean Sea. The precipitation that is in the northwestern
corner of the area is related to the Gulf of Mexico middle level
to upper level trough, and the surface trough.

A weak Atlantic Ocean ridge north of the area is being disrupted
by Hurricane Earl, currently located well north of the area. This
pattern will maintain gentle to moderate breezes and slight seas
across most of the Caribbean through Fri. Moderate to fresh trade
winds will return to the southeast Caribbean Sea and off Honduras
Fri night through Tue, locally strong in the south central
Caribbean Sea Sat night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about
Hurricane Earl, and about the 43W/44W tropical wave and the 1008
mb low pressure center that is accompanying it.

The sea heights will range from 4 feet to 7 feet, in general, away
from Hurricane Earl, and away from the combination of the 1008 mb
low pressure center and the 43W/44W tropical wave. Light to
gentle winds are from 10N northward from 45W westward. Near the
Canary Islands: gentle to moderate winds, with locally fresh
northeast to east trade winds and seas of 5-7 ft are north of 20N
between the northwest African coast and 45W.

A frontal boundary is along 30N/31N, from 70W westward.
Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate, and locally
strong is from 23N northward from 76W westward. This precipitation
covers parts of the NW Bahamas, and the Atlantic Ocean that is to
the east of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina.

SYNOPSIS...Hurricane Earl centered now just north of the area
near 31.3N 63.7W 964 mb at 11 PM EDT moving NNE at 13 kt. Maximum
sustained winds 85 kt gusts 105 kt. Earl will slightly strengthen
as it moves to 33.3N 61.8W Fri morning, eventually becoming
extratropical and move to 43.3N 51.3W Sat evening. Elsewhere, weak
high pressure will prevail to the NW and W of Earl through Fri. A
cold front will move south of 31N late Sat and extend from 31N55W
to 28N65W to 30N73W early Sun before weakening. Northerly swell
will follow the front, affecting the northeastern and north
central forecast zones Sun and Mon before diminishing Tue.

$$
mt/jl
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