[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081803
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Sep 8 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1750 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Post-Tropical Cyclone Danielle is centered near 47.9N 31.0W at
08/1500 UTC or 620 nm NNW of the Azores moving NNE at 12 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are 28 ft near
the center. Scattered moderate convection is limited to the north
semicircle from 48N to 52N between 20W and 35W. The post-tropical
cyclone is forecast to make a gradual counter-clockwise loop
during the next 36 h, and then move generally southeastward to
east-southeastward through the weekend. Danielle is forecast to
remain a large post-tropical cyclone over the north Atlantic for
the next several days, even as its peak winds slowly decrease.
This is the last NHC advisory. Please read the latest NHC Public
Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml, and
the Forecast/Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml, for more details.

Hurricane Earl is centered near 29.0N 65.0W at 08/1500 UTC or
200 nm S of Bermuda moving NNE at 11 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 965 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90
kt with gusts to 110 kt. Seas are peaking at 38 ft near the
center. Numerous moderate convection is from 26N to 34N between
60W and 69W. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next
couple of days, and Earl is expected to become a major hurricane
later today. The hurricane is forecast to become a powerful post-
tropical low by Saturday night. Please read the latest NHC Public
Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml, and
the Forecast/Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml, for more details.

A tropical wave associated with a 1009 mb low pressure located
near 19N40W continues to generate scattered moderate convection
within 510 nm NE quadrant. An earlier scatterometer satellite
pass indicated gale force winds in the northern semicircle of the
low. Seas are estimated to be 12 to 14 ft in the area of stronger
winds. Environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive
for additional development of this system, but only a small
increase in organization could result in the formation of a short-
lived tropical depression or storm later today while it moves
westward to west-northwestward at 13 to 17 kt over the central
tropical Atlantic. After that time, upper-level winds are forecast
to become less conducive for development. Please refer to the
latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic with axis near 20W, extending
from 03N to 15N, moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is evident from 03N to 12N between 16W
and 27W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis near 40W,
extending from 10N to 20N. See the Special Features section above
for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 15N16W to 15N30W to the 1009 mb
low in the Special Features section to 18N53W. For information
about convection see the Special Features and Tropical Waves
sections.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A middle to upper level trough supports a frontal boundary along
the NE gulf coastal waters. Ahead of the front, a surface trough
extends from 29N83W to a 1008 mb low near 28N84W to 23N90W to the
Bay of Campeche. The trough along with upper level diffluent flow
supports scattered showers across most of the eastern half of the
basin and the SW gulf. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient
supports light to gentle northerly winds N and W of the trough and
moderate SW winds ahead of the trough in the SE gulf.

For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will continue
to dominate the Gulf waters through tonight, producing gentle to
locally moderate winds and slight seas across the basin. Broad
low pressure will form in the north-central Gulf early Fri and
induce a moderate to locally fresh southerly return flow across
the eastern half of the basin Fri night into Sat night. Looking
ahead, winds and seas will diminish through Sun as the trough
weakens and shifts west ahead of high pressure building over the
northeast Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak Atlantic ridge north of the area is being disrupted by
Hurricane Earl, currently located well north of the area. This
pattern will maintain gentle to moderate breezes and slight seas
across most of the Caribbean. Otherwise, the eastern extension of
the E Pacific monsoon trough is generating scattered showers in
the SW Caribbean S of 13N.

For the forecast, a weak Atlantic ridge north of the area is
being disrupted by Hurricane Earl, currently located well north of
the area. This pattern will maintain gentle to moderate breezes
and slight seas across most of the Caribbean through Fri. Moderate
to locally fresh trade winds will return to the southeast
Caribbean and off Honduras Fri night through Mon.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
Hurricane Earl and a broad low pressure near 18N39W.

Outside the influence of Hurricane Earl and the broad low
pressure west of the Cabo Verde Islands, a modest Atlantic ridge
is sustaining light to gentle winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft north of
10N west 45W. Near the Canary Islands, gentle to moderate with
locally fresh NE to E trades and seas of 5 to 7 ft are seen north
of 20N between the northwest African coast and 45W. To the south,
gentle to moderate monsoonal winds with 6 to 9 ft seas are
evident south of 20N between the central African coast and 45W.
Gentle to moderate southerly winds and 5 to 8 ft seas in southerly
swell prevail for the rest of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast, Hurricane Earl is near 28.2N 65.4W 969 mb at 5
AM EDT, moving N at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 90 kt with
gusts to 110 kt. Earl will move to 29.6N 64.8W this afternoon, and
32.0N 63.0W Fri morning. Earl will continue to move north of the
area Fri through late Sat as it becomes extratropical, and weakens
by late Sun. Elsewhere, weak high pressure will prevail to the NW
and W of Earl. Northerly swell associated with Earl may impact
the waters north of 29N Fri into Sun. Looking ahead, a new low
pressure system could form near Bermuda by Mon, prolonging NE
swell across the NE and north- central waters. Farther east,
strong to near-gale force winds and rough seas will accompany the
low pressure currently near 18N39W as it moves to the NW to NNW
through Fri. While there is a high chance this low will develop into
a tropical depression over the next couple of days, upper-level
winds are forecast to become less conducive for development
thereafter, allowing winds and seas to diminish.

$$
Ramos
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