[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT45 KNHC 041451
TCDAT5

Hurricane Danielle Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052022
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 04 2022

Danielle has slightly improved in satellite presentation this
morning.  First-light visible imagery still showed a ragged eye that
could be trying to clear out.  Subjective intensity estimates from
TAFB and SAB remain at 77 kt, and the objective estimates have
risen, though are still somewhat lower.  The initial intensity has
been increased to 70 kt to represent a blend of the latest
classifications.

The hurricane is expected to be over relatively warm waters and in a
region with low vertical wind shear for about another day. These
oceanic and atmospheric factors should allow Danielle to gradually
strengthen.  Thereafter, the storm is forecast to move over cooler
waters and encounter moderate deep-layer wind shear which will
likely result in weakening.  The NHC intensity forecast is similar
to the previous advisory and close to the consensus model aids.
Danielle is still expected to become an extratropical cyclone in
about 5 days.

Danielle is still drifting in the Central Atlantic with the latest
motion estimated at 270/1 kt, but model guidance insists a turn to
the north should occur today ahead of a mid-latitude trough over
eastern Canada.  Then Danielle is expected to turn northeast with an
accelerated forward motion in about a day. The storm should then
turn east-northeastward within the mid-latitude westerly flow in a
few days. The latest forecast is similar to the previous advisory in
terms of location with a slightly accelerated along-track motion.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/1500Z 38.1N  45.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  05/0000Z 38.6N  45.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  05/1200Z 39.5N  44.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  06/0000Z 40.6N  43.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  06/1200Z 41.5N  41.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  07/0000Z 42.5N  39.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  07/1200Z 43.5N  36.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  08/1200Z 45.5N  29.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  09/1200Z 46.7N  21.7W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Cangialosi
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