[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041050
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Sep 4 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1050 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Earl is centered near 19.5N 64.9W at 04/0900 UTC
or 70 nm N of St. Thomas moving WNW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45
kt with gusts to 55 kt. Numerous moderate convection is from 35N
to 41N between 43W and 48W. On the forecast track, the center of
Earl is expected to pass to the north of the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico today, and then move away from the islands tonight and
Monday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more
details.

Hurricane Danielle is centered near 38.1N 45.2W at 04/0900 UTC
or 860 nm W of the Azores moving N at 1 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 988 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65
kt with gusts to 80 kt. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection
is from 17N to 22N between 59W and 65W. The hurricane is expected
to begin a slow motion toward the north today. A slightly faster
northeastward motion is forecast to begin tonight and continue
during the next couple of days. Some gradual strengthening is
forecast through Monday.
Please read the latest NHC Public
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and
Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 35W, from 14N to 26N, moving westward at
15 kt. A 1011 mb low pressure is along the wave near 22.0N.
Scattered moderate convection is from 21N to 26Nz between 31W and
38W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extend from 17N16W to 13N30W to 09N38W. The
ITCZ begins near 09N38W and continues to 09N54W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 240 nm south of both the monsoon and
ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A few showers and isolated thunderstorms prevail in the far NW and
NE gulf waters while a surface trough just offshore Veracruz is
generating scattered showers and tstms in the Bay of Campeche.
Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient continue to support moderate E
to SE winds in the SW gulf and light to gentle variable winds
elsewhere.

For the forecast, weak high pressure will reside across the
northern Gulf through Tue. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail
across southern portions through early Sun, then diminish to
gentle to locally moderate winds and slight seas thereafter. Winds
will freshen at night over portions of the SW Gulf through Tue
night due to the diurnal trough developing each afternoon over the
Yucatan peninsula.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Most of the storm activity related to Tropical Storm Earl is
outside of the Caribbean Sea, however, a few showers are seen in
the extreme NE portion of the basin. Heavy showers and tstms
are occurring in the offshores between Panama and Colombia and
also in the Costa Rica adjacent waters. Otherwise, an upper level
low continue to support scattered showers between Cuba and
Jamaica. In terms of winds and seas, mainly gentle to moderate
winds and seas to 4 ft dominate the region.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds in the western half of
the Caribbean will diminish to light to gentle early this evening
and then prevail through Thu. Moderate to locally fresh winds
will develop over the eastern half of the Caribbean this evening
and persist through the end of the forecast period. Otherwise,
Tropical Storm Earl is near 19.5N 64.9W 999 mb at 5 AM EDT moving
WNW at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt. Earl will
move to 20.1N 65.6W this afternoon, 21.1N 66.2W Mon morning, 22.0N
66.5W Mon afternoon, 23.0N 66.6W Tue morning, 24.0N 66.7W Tue
afternoon, and 25.0N 66.5W Wed morning. Earl will strengthen to a
hurricane near 26.5N 65.5W early Thu. Active weather associated
with Earl is expected to impact the NE Caribbean through Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please the Special Features section for more information on
Tropical Storm Earl, located NE of the Virgin Islands.

Aside from Earl, the subtropical Atlantic is under the influence
of a broad ridge that is supporting gentle to moderate winds and
slight to moderate seas, except over the far NE Atlantic where
fresh NE to E winds dominate with seas to 6 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, Tropical Storm Earl near 19.5N
64.9W 999 mb at 5 AM EDT moving WNW at 7 kt. Maximum sustained
winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt. Earl will move to 20.1N 65.6W this
afternoon, 21.1N 66.2W Mon morning, 22.0N 66.5W Mon afternoon,
23.0N 66.6W Tue morning, 24.0N 66.7W Tue afternoon, and 25.0N
66.5W Wed morning. Earl will strengthen to a hurricane near 26.5N
65.5W early Thu.

$$
Ramos
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