[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 312106
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Nov 1 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Lisa is centered near 15.5N 78.4W at 31/2100 UTC
or 280 nm SE of Grand Cayman moving W at 12 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind
speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are currently
13-14 ft. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is
noted within 180 nm in the southeast semicircle with scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection within 150 nm in the
northwest semicircle. Lisa is moving toward the west and a
westward to west-northwestward motion is expected over the next
few days. On the forecast track, the center will pass south of
Jamaica today, south of the Cayman Islands tomorrow, then move
near or over the Bay Islands of Honduras early on Wed and
approach Belize later on Wed. Slow strengthening is forecast
during the next 48 hours, and Lisa is forecast to become a
hurricane on Wed over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Localized
flash flooding is expected across portions of the eastern Yucatan
Peninsula, Belize, and northern Honduras, including the Bay
Islands, starting late Tue continuing through Thu. There is
potential for a dangerous storm surge near where the core of Lisa
crosses the coast of Belize. Please read the latest NHC Public
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has its axis along 57W, south of
20N to near the border of Guyana and Suriname, moving west at
10-15 kt. A few showers are noted near the trough axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is mostly confined to the African continent,
entering the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 08N15W. The ITCZ stretches from 08N15W to 06N30W to the
coast of Brazil near 02N50W. Divergence aloft and plenty of
tropical moisture sustains scattered moderate convection from 02N
to 14N and between 30W and 56W, with similar convection from 04N
to 09N between 14W and 23W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak stationary front is draped across the Gulf of Mexico,
extending from near Apalachicola, Florida to the SW Gulf near
21N95W. Shallow showers are present near the frontal boundary. A
weak surface trough is found near the coast of Mexico from 18N94W
to 24N98W and it is also generating a few showers, with even some
isolated thunderstorms noted from 23N to 24N between 95W and 97W.
The rest of the basin is under a dry environmental that maintains
fairly tranquil weather conditions. Moderate to locally fresh E-SE
winds and 2-4 ft seas are from 22N to 26N west of 94W. Gentle to
moderate NE-E winds and 2-4 ft seas are elsewhere west of the
front, with light to gentle NE-E winds and 2-3 ft seas east of the
front.

For the forecast, the front will lift north through Tue before
dissipating. A trough will form just offshore Texas on Tue,
inducing fresh winds in the Texas offshore waters through Tue
night. Elsewhere, high pressure will dominate the basin producing
mainly moderate NE to E winds. Southerly return flow is expected
to increase over the NW Gulf toward the end of the work-week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for information on
Tropical Storm Lisa in the Central Caribbean Sea.

Outside of the influence of Tropical Storm Lisa, isolated to
widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted in the
south-central and southeast Caribbean, as well as from Puerto Rico
to the Dominican Republic. Only shallow, isolated showers are
found in the rest of the Caribbean Sea. An earlier scatterometer
satellite pass indicate that moderate to locally fresh easterly
trade winds are occurring in the central and eastern Caribbean.
Seas in these waters are 3-5 ft. Moderate easterly winds are also
noted in the lee of Cuba, with fresh to locally strong easterly
winds between Cuba and Jamaica due to Lisa located to the south.
Gentle to moderate winds are present across the remainder of the
basin. Seas in these waters are 2-4 ft.

For the forecast, Lisa will move to 15.7N 80.2W Tue morning,
16.2N 82.8W Tue afternoon, 16.7N 85.4W Wed morning, strengthen to
a hurricane near 17.0N 87.6W Wed afternoon, move inland and
weaken to a tropical storm near 16.9N 89.3W Thu morning, and move
inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 16.9N 90.9W Thu
afternoon. Lisa will become a remnant low as it moves to near
17.5N 93.0W Fri afternoon. Elsewhere, with the exception of light
to gentle variable winds in the SW Caribbean, moderate to locally
fresh trade winds are forecast elsewhere through Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front extends from 31N60W to 28N70W while a surface
trough is seen from 31N56W to 24N64W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is found north of 25N and between 53W
and 60W. Moderate to locally fresh westerly winds are occurring
north of 27N and between 54W and 65W. Seas of 6-9 ft in NE swell
are found north of 29N between 54W and 72W. The highest seas are
found near 31N67W.

The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by an expansive
1021 mb subtropical high positioned near 28N39W, supporting
fairly tranquil weather conditions. One exception is from 10N to
13N between 50W and 55W where fresh to strong winds and 6-8 ft
seas are noted due to a perturbation along the ITCZ. Elsewhere the
pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressures
in the deep tropics result in moderate to fresh easterly trade
winds south of a line from the Canary Islands to the NE Leeward
Islands. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Moderate or weaker winds
and seas of 2-5 ft prevail across the remainder of the open
Atlantic waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will move across the
NE waters through Wed while dissipating. Then, a frontal trough
will persist moving SE through Thu. Another cold front will reach
the N waters on Thu. Strong high pressure in the wake of the front
will bring fresh to strong easterly winds across the N waters,
mainly north of 27N through Sat. Elsewhere, moderate to locally
fresh trade winds will persist in the Great Bahama Bank and the
approaches of the Windward Passage through Thu.

$$
Lewitsky
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