[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310602
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Oct 31 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Potential Tropical Cyclone (PTC) Fifteen is centered near 15.8N
74.9W at 31/0300 UTC, or 170 nm SE of Kingston, Jamaica and moving
W at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is evident within 75 nm of the
center. Recent ASCAT satellite scatterometer and altimetry data
reveal the strongest E to SE winds and 9 to 11 ft seas are up to
120 nm north and southeast of the center, south of Haiti. PTC
Fifteen is expected to gradually strengthen and could become a
tropical storm on Monday. It will continue on a general westward
track with little change in forward speed for the next several
days. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 53W from 18N southward,
and moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 08N to 11N between 51W and 53W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains over central Africa based on the latest
analysis. An ITCZ stretches westward from near the Guinea-Sierra
Leone border across 7N30W to 10N51W, then from 10N54W to just
south of Trinidad and Tobago. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is present up to 100 nm north and 180 nm south
of both ITCZ segments.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends southward from the Florida Panhandle to the
east-central Gulf, then curves southwestward as a stationary front
to near Vera Cruz, Mexico. Scattered showers are present near and
up to 80 nm east of the cold front, and near the stationary front
across the west-central Gulf. Gentle to moderate N to NE winds and
seas at 3 to 4 ft are evident at the north-central and southern
Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche and Florida Straits. Southerly
gentle to moderate winds with 2 to 4 ft seas are present at the
northeastern Gulf. A 1017 mb high is sustaining light to gentle
winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft for the northwestern Gulf.

For the forecast, the cold front portion will reach Panama City,
Florida by Mon morning. The stationary front portion is expected
to transition back to a cold front overnight and reach just north
of the Yucatan Peninsula on Mon. The entire front should then
stall on Mon evening before gradually lifting northward over the
northern Gulf by Tue night. A low pressure will form along the
weakening front just offshore Texas on Tue, inducing fresh to
locally strong winds in the Texas offshore waters, before
dissipating with the front Tue night. Gentle to moderate NE to E
winds will then dominate the basin Wed through Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information about
Potential Tropical Cyclone (PTC) Fifteen in the Central Caribbean
Sea.

A surface trough curves northeastward from off the Nicaragua coast
through PTC Fifteen to over central Hispaniola. Convergent winds
near and east of the trough are triggering scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms east of the Nicaragua coast, and from
the Mona Passage eastward across Hispaniola to the Virgin
Islands. Farther south, convergent trades are producing widely
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across northern
Colombia and the ABC Islands.

Outside the influence of PTC Fifteen, gentle to moderate NE to E
trades and seas of 2 to 4 ft are present over the eastern and
northwestern basin. Moderate to locally fresh SW to NW winds with
4 to 6 ft seas are noted at the west-central and south-central
basin. Gentle northerly winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft prevail at the
southwestern basin.

For the forecast, PTC Fifteen will move to near 16.0N 76.4W Mon
morning while becoming a tropical storm. It will then move to
near 16.7N 80.6W Tue morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 17.3N
85.4W Wed morning, before moving inland into Central America late
Wed night. Otherwise, with the exception of light to gentle
variable winds in the SW basin, moderate to locally fresh winds
are forecast elsewhere through Thu.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Convergent southerly winds are coupling with divergent flow aloft
to generate widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
north of 20N between 56W and 62W. A broad upper-level low is at
the central Atlantic near 22N39W. Isolated thunderstorms are seen
near its center from 21N to 25N between 36W and 43W. A large area
of strong divergent winds southeast of the low is inducing
scattered moderate convection from 12N to 19N between 30W and
40W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections
for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

A large 1018 mb mid-Atlantic high is supporting light to gentle
winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft north of 24N between the northwest
African coast and 54W. Gentle to moderate SW to W winds with 6 to
8 ft seas are seen south and southeast of Bermuda, north of 27N
between 54W and 70W. Farther west, gentle to moderate NE to ENE
winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft are evident north of 20N between 70W
and the Georgia-Florida coast. To the south, gentle to moderate
with locally fresh NNE to E trades and seas of 6 to 9 ft are
present from 06N to 20N/24N between the central African coast and
the Lesser Antilles/70W. Southerly trades with 4 to 7 ft seas
prevail for the rest of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, a low pressure system is centered N
of the area near 34N63W. A weak cold front will develop from that
low tonight into Monday and move across the waters north of 27N
and east of 67W through Wed evening, when the front is expected
to move E of 55W before dissipating. Otherwise, moderate to
locally fresh trade winds will persist in the Great Bahama Bank
and the approaches of the Windward Passage through Thu.

$$

Chan
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