[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290601
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Oct 29 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning:

A cold front moving southeastward across the northwestern and
west-central Gulf of Mexico will reach the southwestern Gulf Sat
morning. Fresh to strong northerly winds following behind the
front will increase to gale force in the western Bay of Campeche,
offshore from near Veracruz, Mexico late Sat morning. Seas are
expected to build and reach 8 to 10 ft through Sat evening. Please
refer to the High Seas Forecast issued by NHC at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shmtl for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 35W from 11N southward,
and moving west at 15 1o 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 03N to 07N between 33W to 36W.

A western Atlantic tropical wave is near 53W from 19N southward,
and moving west around 10 kt. Much drier air at low to mid levels
are hindering significant convection near this feature.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the African coast near
the Mauritania-Senegal border to southeast of the Cabo Verde
Islands at 14N21W. An ITCZ extends from 09N24W to 08N33W, then
from 07N37W through 06N45W to north of French Guiana at 07N52W.
Isolated moderate convection is evident up to 100 nm north, and
160 nm south of the first ITCZ segment. Scattered moderate
convection is found up to 60 nm along either side of the second
ITCZ segment.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for information on a Gale
Warning for the western Bay of Campeche.

A cold front curves southwestward from a 1013 mb low near Houston,
Texas to near Tampico, Mexico. North of 24N, numerous showers and
scattered thunderstorms are occurring along and up to 180 nm east
of the front. South of 24N, scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are found along and up to 80 nm southeast of the
front. Fresh to strong northerly winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are
evident behind the front. Fresh to strong southerly winds with 4
to 6 ft seas are seen near and up to 180 nm south of the low.
Gentle to moderate with locally fresh E to SE winds and seas at 2
to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, fresh to strong N winds will persist behind the
front W of 94W through Sat afternoon. Brief gales are expected
across the Veracruz area late Sat morning and will end by the
evening hours. The front will reach from the Florida Panhandle to
central Bay of Campeche by Sun afternoon. The front will stall
and dissipate in the eastern Gulf Sun night into Mon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A deep-layered trough extends southward from Hispaniola to
northern Venezuela. Aided by divergent southerly flow aloft,
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are present across
the eastern basin, including the Windward and ABC Islands.
Moderate to fresh E to SE trades and seas of 5 to 7 ft are seen
over the eastern basin. Gentle to moderate N to NW winds with 3 to
5 ft are noted at the central basin. Light to gentle with locally
moderate NNE to NE trades and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail for the
remainder of the Caribbean Basin.

For the forecast, the upper-level portion of the deep layered
trough will lift northward Sat night. A broad area of low
pressure at low to mid levels will remain over the eastern
Caribbean, and sustain a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms extending from the Windward Islands west-
northwestward for several hundred miles. Environmental conditions
are forecast to be conducive for gradual development over the next
few days, and a tropical depression is likely to form this
weekend or early next week while the disturbance moves slowly
westward or west-northwestward over the central Caribbean.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over
portions of the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto
Rico through this weekend. This system has a low chance of
development in the next 48 hours and a high chance in the next 5
days. Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to continue
through the weekend with the trough and potential developing low.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A deep-layered trough extends southward from a 1013 mb low west of
Bermuda to beyond Hispaniola. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are occurring north of 20N between 63W and 72W. An
upper-level low near 21N45W is triggering scattered moderate
convection from 16N to 20N between 40W and 30W. Refer to the
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional
convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Despite light to gentle winds supported by the 1023 mb Mid-
Atlantic High near 33N48W, 6 to 9 ft seas in northerly swell are
present north of 19N between northwest African coast and 54W. To
the west, moderate to fresh NE to SE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft
are found north of 20N between 54W and the Georgia-Florida coast.
Farther south, gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to E
trades and seas of 5 to 7 ft exist north of 10N between the
central African coast and the Lesser Antilles. Moderate to fresh
ENE to ESE trades with 6 to 8 ft seas are evident from EQ to 11N
between 29W and 53W. Light to gentle monsoonal and southerly winds
with 4 to 6 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west 55W, surface trough over the southwestern
Atlantic continues to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms
mainly between 63W and 70W. The 1013 mb surface low that
developed along the northern portion of the trough is now north of
the forecast waters. This system is currently producing a limited
amount of shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental
conditions are forecast to remain only marginally conducive, and
any additional development should be slow to occur over the next
day or so. By late Saturday, upper-level winds are forecast to
become even less favorable, and the low is expected to begin
interacting with an approaching frontal system. Therefore,
development after that time is not anticipated. This system has a
low chance of development in the next 48 hours and 5 days. This
system will eventually bring moderate to rough seas in NE swell
through the weekend west of 70W.

$$

Chan
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