[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270004
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Oct 27 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Trough:
A trough that extends northward from Haiti to 26N71W and to just
north of the area at 32N72W is producing a broad area of
disorganized scattered moderate convection from 19N to 31N
between 60W-69W. The northern part of this trough axis is
expected to result in the formation of a surface cyclone, and
environmental conditions appear somewhat conducive for
subtropical development of this system thereafter. A subtropical
depression could form while the system moves northward during the
next couple of days. The system is then forecast to meander over
the subtropical western Atlantic to the west or southwest of
Bermuda as upper-level winds are forecast to become less
conducive for development by the end of the weekend. This system
has a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the
next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather
Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Caribbean Sea Heavy Rainfall:
A deep-layer central Caribbean trough is drifting eastward. At
the surface, a trough extends from the Dominican Republic
southward to near 15N75W. In addition, a tropical wave along 66W
will gradually migrate toward the deep layer trough through Thu
evening. These two systems will combine to produce numerous
showers and thunderstorms over the eastern Caribbean Sea,
including Puerto Rico, the US/UK Virgin Islands and the Dominican
Republic. Excessive heavy rainfall will likely result in
localized flooding across portions of Puerto Rico, the US/UK
Virgin Islands, and eastern Hispaniola through at least Thu
evening. Residents in these locations should monitor this
developing situation closely and stay informed with their local
weather offices and authorities. In addition, an area of low
pressure is expected to form over the eastern Caribbean Sea this
weekend, possibly related to the southern part of an existing
trough of low pressure over the area. Thereafter, environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development,
and a tropical depression could form by early next week while the
disturbance moves generally westward or west-northwestward into
the central Caribbean Sea.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 44W from
04N to 18N. It is moving westward near 15 kt. No deep convection
is noted along or near the wave. However, isolated showers are
possible near its axis from 05N to 11N.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 66W from 09N to
19N. It is moving westward at 5-10 kt. A large area of numerous
moderate to strong convection is between the wave and 61W from
13N to 19N. An upper-level diffluent flow east of the wave is
helping to sustain this convection.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coastal plains of
Guinea near 10N14W to 08N16W. The ITCZ continues from 08N16W to
07N18W to 07N26W to 12N41W to 10N45W and to 11N60W. A large area
of numerous moderate to strong convection is observed from the
ITCZ north to 16N and between 30W-41W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 60 nm south of the ITCZ between 37W-41W

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is analyzed from northeast Florida southwestward to
23N93W, where it becomes stationary to the central Bay of
Campeche. No deep convection is noted with this front. Isolated
small showers and thunderstorms are seen southeast of the front.

A 1014 mb high center is just west of southwest Florida. Latest
ASCAT data passes show moderate to fresh northerly winds, and
wave heights of 5-7 ft north and northwest of the cold front
north of 22N. Northwest winds in the far southwestern Gulf have
diminishes to fresh speeds and wave heights there have subsided
to 4-6 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds are noted. Wave
heights of 2-4 ft are in the southeast part of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will continue
pushing southward toward the Tampa Bay region before becoming
stationary tonight, then dissipate by Thu. Moderate to fresh
return flow will develop across NW Gulf on Thu night into Fri
morning ahead of the next approaching cold front. This cold front
is expected to push off the Texas coast on Fri afternoon and
move eastward through the weekend. Winds behind the front could
increase to gale-force near Veracruz on Sat morning for a few
hours. The front will reach the eastern Gulf by Sun.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details about the
potential for heavy rain in the Caribbean Sea through late this
week.

A surface trough extends from the east-central sections of the
Yucatan Peninsula to the eastern section of El Salvador. No
convection is noted with this trough.

Light to gentle trade winds are over most of the basin, except
in the eastern section of the Caribbean, where fresh trade winds
are noted. Wave heights of 4-6 ft in east swell are to the
east of the tropical wave. Seas of 2-4 ft are elsewhere in the
basin.

The monsoon trough roughly extends along 09N/10N and westward
to beyond Panama and Costa Rica and into the tropical Pacific
domain. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are near and along
the trough.

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the region
will maintain gentle to moderate NE to E winds across the basin W
of 70W through Fri. A deep layered trough N to S across the
central Caribbean will stall over the area through the weekend
and lift northward on gradually lift northward early next week. A
tropical wave along 66W will continue moving westward and become
absorbed within the trough along 70W tonight through Thu night.
This interaction will induce numerous thunderstorms across the
eastern half of the basin through Thu. Fresh to locally strong
trade winds and increasing east swell across the Tropical
Atlantic waters will gradually shift into the far eastern
Caribbean through Thu. An area of low pressure is expected to
form over the eastern Caribbean Sea this weekend, possibly
related to the southern part of an existing trough of low
pressure over the area. Thereafter, environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical
depression could form by early next week while the disturbance
moves generally westward or west-northwestward into the central
Caribbean Sea.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A dissipating front extends from near 30N20W to 27N30W to 26N40W
to 28N47W and to 31N41W. A surface trough extends from 25N30W to
20N31W to near 16N37W. A large area of rain with embedded
moderate rain, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms is
seen from 16N to 18N between 30W-40W and from 16N to 19N between
24W-40W. A 1018 mb high pressure center is just to the south of
the Canary Islands near 26N16W.

North swell will produce wave heights of 8-12 ft roughly to the
waters north of 29N and east of 45W through Thu. Wave heights of
5-8 ft in the tropical Atlantic are between 35W and the Lesser
Antilles.

For the forecast, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
persist across the Atlantic waters between 60W-70W that is
associated with a deep layer upper-level trough. At the surface,
a trough of low pressure along 70W stretching from the eastern
Caribbean northward to the southwestern Atlantic continues to
produce a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual
subtropical development of this system, and a subtropical
depression could form while it drifts northward during the next
couple of days. The system is then forecast to meander over the
subtropical western Atlantic to the west or southwest of Bermuda.
Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for
development by the end of the weekend. This system has a medium
chance of development in the next 48 hours and 5 days. Regardless
of development, strong winds are expected near the low.

$$
Aguirre
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