[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260529
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Oct 26 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning:
A cold front from extends from the NW Florida-Alabama border to
just SE of Veracruz, Mexico. Gale force winds are occurring behind
the cold front near the Veracruz area. Wave heights with these
winds are expected to peak to 9 ft tonight. Winds are forecast to
diminish below gale force during the overnight hours. Please read
the High Sea Forecast issued by NHC at:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information.

Eastern Caribbean Sea Heavy Rainfall:
A deep-layer trough extends across the central Caribbean from the
Windward Passage to near northwest Colombia. A wide band of
showers and thunderstorms is on the east side of the trough
affecting from northern Colombia and western Venezuela all the way
NE to Puerto Rico and regional waters, and parts of Hispaniola.
Meanwhile, a tropical wave, with axis along 64W based on recent
scatterometer pass, will move across the eastern Caribbean Sea
through late Thu. These ingredients will combine this week leading
to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the eastern Caribbean
Sea, including Puerto Rico, the US/UK Virgin Islands and the
Dominican Republic. The San Juan Doppler radar shows showers with
strong thunderstorms over the Mona Passage moving northward and
affecting the west coastal areas of Puerto Rico. Frequent lightning
and gusty winds are expected with the strong thunderstorms.
Excessive heavy rainfall could result in localized flooding across
portions of Puerto Rico, the US/UK Virgin Islands, and eastern
Hispaniola through at least Thu. Residents in these locations
should monitor this developing situation closely and stay informed
with their local weather offices and authorities.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 41W from 03N
to 15N. It is moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is near the wave axis mainly from 06N to 10N between
38W and 43W.

Another tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean with axis
along 64W based on a recent ASCAT pass that indicates the wind
shift associated with the wave. Some convective activity is near
the southern end of the wave affecting the Windward Islands and
eastern Venezuela. It is moving westward at about 15 kt.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic along the coast of
Guinea near 10N14W to 08N16W. The ITCZ continues from 08N16W to
07N25W to 08N35W to 08N50W to 11N59W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted from 09N to 12N between 43W and 53W.

The eastern segment of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends
into the southwestern Caribbean Sea roughly along 10N/11N and to
near northwest Colombia. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are
near the trough, and over parts of Costa Rica and Panama.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front from extends from the NW Florida-Alabama border to
just SE of Veracruz, Mexico. Refer to the Special Features
section for more details. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are ahead of the front to near 87W and from 23N to
26N. Moderate to fresh northerly winds and wave heights of 5-7 ft
are behind the front over the northwestern Gulf. A weak ridge
dominates the eastern Gulf where light to gentle winds and seas of
2-4 ft prevail.

For the forecast, the cold front will continue to move SE and weaken
overnight, and reach from the Florida Big Bend to central Bay of
Campeche Wed afternoon, before gradually dissipating from near
Tampa Bay to the SW Gulf Wed night into Thu. Strong to gale force
winds from Veracruz to Cabo Rojo, Mexico will shift southward and
diminish overnight. Moderate to fresh return flow will develop
across NW portions Thu night through Fri, ahead of the next
approaching cold front, which should move off the Texas coast Fri
afternoon. This next front may stall and weaken in the central
Gulf this weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for potential heavy rain
across the eastern Caribbean Sea this week.

Enhanced by the deep-layer trough and associated moisture mentioned
in the Special Features section, numerous showers and scattered
thunderstorms continue to flaring up over the east-central
Caribbean. Winds and seas could be higher near tstms. Satellite
derived wind data indicate moderate to locally fresh SE winds
behind the tropical wave located along 64W. Moderate NE winds are
in the lee of eastern Cuba while moderate easterly winds are
noted in the Gulf of Honduras. Light to gentle winds are seen
elsewhere across the basin. Seas are generally 2-4 ft.

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the regional
Atlantic and Caribbean will maintain gentle to moderate trade
winds through early Wed. A deep layered trough across the central
Caribbean will gradually lift northward through the remainder of
the week. A tropical wave along 64W will move westward and become
absorbed within the trough along 68W Wed night through Thu. This
interaction will induce numerous thunderstorms across the eastern
half of the basin tonight through Thu. Fresh to locally strong
trade winds and increasing E swell across the Tropical Atlantic
waters will gradually shift into the far eastern Caribbean tonight
through Wed. An area of low pressure could form over the eastern
Caribbean Sea by early this weekend. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for gradual development as the low drifts
westward or west-northwestward over the eastern Caribbean this
weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A trough of low pressure stretching from the central Caribbean
northward to the southwestern Atlantic is producing a broad area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms between 65W and 72W. At the
surface, a weak trough is analyzed along 70W/71W with a 1011 mb
low pressure near 27N70W. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for some gradual subtropical development of this system over the
next few days while it drifts north-northeastward. The system is
then forecast to meander over the subtropical western Atlantic to
the west or southwest of Bermuda. Upper-level winds are forecast
to become less conducive for development by the end of the
weekend.

A cold front extends from a 1008 mb low pressure located mid-way
between the Azores and the Madeira Islands to 27N30W to 31N46W
where it becomes stationary. Mainly low clouds and possible showers
are along the frontal boundary. A swell event will follow this
front bringing seas of 8-10 ft roughly across the waters N of 29N
and E of 45W Wed into Thu. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are observed from 22N to 30N between 40W and 52W associated with
an upper-level trough. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast
waters in under the influence of high pressure with a center of
1018 mb situated SW of the Canary Islands near 25N24W. Seas of 5-8
ft are noted over the tropical Atlantic between 35W and the
Lesser Antilles.

For the forecast west of 55W, the deep layered trough will drift
slowly eastward through Thu and produce very active weather. Low
pres is expected to develop near 29N67W by Thu night and move to
near 31.5N68W early Sat, where it will remain nearly stationary
through the upcoming weekend.

$$
GR
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net