[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251807
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Oct 25 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning:
Fresh to strong northerly winds behind a cold front at the Bay of
Campeche are expected to increase and reach near-gale to gale
force by this evening. Please read the High Sea Forecast issued by
NHC at: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
information.

Eastern Caribbean Sea Heavy Rainfall:
A deep-layered trough currently north of the Dominican Republic
near 71W is advecting moisture across Hispaniola. It will drift
eastward to north of Puerto Rico and spread moisture over the
island through Wed. Meanwhile, a tropical wave just east of the
Lesser Antilles is going to enter the eastern Caribbean Sea
tonight through Wed. These elements will combine Thu, producing
numerous showers and thunderstorms over the eastern Caribbean
Seas, including Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands and the Dominican
Republic. Heavy rainfall could lead to localized flooding across
portions of Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and eastern
Hispaniola through Thu. Residents in these locations should
monitor this developing situation closely and stay informed with
their local weather offices and authorities.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An central Atlantic tropical wave is near 38W from 14N southward,
and moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 06N to 12N between 36W and 39W. Latest ASCAT
satellite scatterometer data reveal fresh easterly winds with 7
to 9 ft seas near and east of the wave from 06N to 11N between
35W and 38W.

A western Atlantic tropical wave is just east of the Lesser
Antilles near 59W from 19N southward, and moving westward around
15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present
from 11N to 17N between 57W and 60W. Latest ASCAT satellite
scatterometer data show fresh easterly winds with 7 to 9 ft seas
near and east of the wave from 11N to 17N between 55W and 59W.

A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is near 76W from eastern
Cuba southward to northwestern Colombia, and drifting westward
around 5 kt. Enhanced by the deep-layered trough and associated
moisture mentioned in the Special Features section, numerous heavy
showers and scattered thunderstorms are flaring up over the
central Caribbean Sea, including southern Hispaniola. This wave
is in the process of being absorbed into the deep-layered trough.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough entered the Atlantic along the African coast
near Bissau to 09N19W. No significant convection is near the
trough based on this analysis. An ITCZ continues from 09N19W
across 08N30W to 07N36W, and then from 06N39W across 07N50W to
10N57W. Scattered moderate convection is found up to 100 nm north
and 60 nm south of the first ITCZ segment between 27W and 36W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present up to
120 nm north and 80 nm south of the second ITCZ segment.

The eastern end of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough is
triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near
Panama and northwestern Colombia, and nearby Caribbean waters.

...GULF OF MEXICO...
Refer to the Special Features section for developing gale winds
at the western Bay of Campeche.

A cold front curves southwestward from just west of New Orleans to
just south of the Texas-Mexico border. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are seen along and up to 60 nm south of the
front. Convergent southerly winds farther southeast is causing
similar conditions at the central Gulf. Fresh to strong northerly
winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft are seen behind the front over the
northwestern Gulf. Fresh northerly winds with seas at 5 to 7 ft
are evident near the front at the north-central Gulf. A surface
ridge extends from a 1018 mb high over central Florida to the
Yucatan Peninsula. This feature is supporting gentle to moderate
southerly winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, occasional and local gusts to gale force just
behind the front are possible today, while sustained gales off
Mexico in the western Bay of Campeche will occur this evening.
This front will reach from Mobile Bay, Alabama to the western Bay
of Campeche this evening. The front will then slow down and
weaken, and gradually dissipate Wed night into Thu. Fresh return
flow will develop across northwestern Gulf Thu night through Fri,
ahead of the next approaching cold front, which should move off
the Texas coast late Fri afternoon. This next front may stall and
weaken in the central Gulf this weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for potential heavy rain
across the eastern Caribbean Sea. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
and Tropical Waves sections for convection in the Caribbean Basin.

Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds with 3 to 5 ft seas are
found at the central basin and Gulf of Honduras. Mainly gentle
easterly trades and seas of 2 to 3 ft prevail for the remainder
of the basin.

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the regional
Atlantic and Caribbean will maintain gentle to moderate trade
winds and light to moderate seas through early Wed. A deep layered
trough is expected to develop across the central Caribbean today
through Wed and lift northward Thu and Fri. A tropical wave along
59W will move westward and become absorbed within the trough along
67W Wed night through Thu. These features will induce numerous
thunderstorms across the eastern half of the basin later today
through Thu. Fresh to locally strong trade winds and increasing E
swell are moving into Tropical Atlantic waters, behind the
tropical wave, and will gradually shift into the far eastern
Caribbean tonight through Wed. An area of low pressure could form
over the eastern Caribbean Sea by early this weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A deep-layered trough runs northward from north of the Dominican
Republic at 21N70W to beyond 31N at 74W. This system is causing
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from the central and
southeast Bahamas northward between 67W and 76W. An upper-level
near 29N56W is producing scattered moderate convection north of
25N between 47W and 57W. A modest cold front curves westward from
west of the Canary Islands across 31N25W across 29N35W to beyond
31N43W. Patchy showers are evident up to 60 nm along either side
of this boundary. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical
Waves sections for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

The weak Atlantic ridge is sustaining light to gentle winds and
seas of 3 to 5 ft north of 22N between the northwest African
coast and 65W. To the west, gentle to moderate NE to E to SE winds
with 4 to 6 ft seas are present north of 20N between 65W and the
Georgia-Florida coast. Further south outside the influence of the
tropical waves, gentle to moderate NE to E trades and seas at 6 to
9 ft are noted north of 08N between the central African coast
and Lesser Antilles. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and seas
of 5 to 7 ft in southerly swell prevail for the rest of the
Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, scattered showers and thunderstorms
continue across the Atlantic waters between 65W and 74W,
associated with a deep-layered upper trough. The trough will
drift slowly eastward and reorganize at lower levels along 69W
today through Thu and produce very active weather. A low pressure
is expected to develop near 28N67W by Thu night and move to near
31N68W Fri night where it will become stationary through Sat.

$$

Chan
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net