[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 242314
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Oct 25 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Satellite and Bermuda radar images indicate that the low pressure
system located about 90 nm ESE of Bermuda now has a well-defined
defined center. It is producing a relatively concentrated area
of numerous moderate convection from 33N to 36N between 62W-66W.
Scattered to numerous moderate convection is evident from 31N to
32N between 57W-62W, and also from 27N to 31N between 50W-61W.
Wave heights of 8-9 ft due to a northeast to east swell are over
the waters southeast of the low pressure, generally from 29N to
31N between 54W-63W.

If the convective activity persists near the center, the
disturbance will likely become a tropical depression later today
or tonight while it moves west-northwestward and passes near
Bermuda. After that time, the system is expected to turn
northward and move toward cooler waters and into a region of
unfavorable upper-level winds, which should limit additional
development. This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone
formation during the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest
NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 34W from 03N
to 15N. It is moving westward at an estimated motion of about 10
kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within
120 nm east of the wave axis from 05N to 08N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 54W from 05N
to 18N moving westward at 5-10 kt. Strong upper level westerly
wind shear continues to displace an area of scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection to the east of the wave axis from
07N to 13N between 50W and 54W. Similar activity is within 60 nm
west of the wave axis from 07N to 11N.

A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 75W from
Colombia to the southwest tip of Haiti. It is moving westward
at about 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted within
120 nm either side of the wave from 13N to 15N. Deep-layer
troughing is expected to develop N to S across the central
Caribbean during the next few days and absorb the wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Senegal near
14N17W to 11N22W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that
it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 09N32W. It resumes
west of a tropical wave near 08N37W and continues to 07N42W and
to 09N52W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
within 180 nm south of the ITCZ between 22W-26W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 240 nm south of the trough between
16W-19W, and within 150 nm south of the ITCZ between 26W-32W

The eastern segment of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough
extends across the southwestern Caribbean roughly along 10N/11N.
Scattered to numerous moderate convection is occurring from 09N
to 12N between 74W-79W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure over the eastern United States extends southwestward
across the Gulf of Mexico to the Bay of Campeche. It continues to
maintain a fairly dry weather pattern. The pressure gradient
between this ridge and lower pressure over Texas is supporting
fresh to strong southeast to south winds over the western Gulf
west of about 94W. Buoys are reporting wave heights of 6-9 ft
north of 22N and west of 94W, due to a south swell and 3-6 ft
south of 22N. Moderate to fresh southeast winds along with wave
heights of 3-5 ft are over the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong southeast to south winds
west of 94W will continue through tonight as a cold front
approaches the Texas coast. This front will move off the Texas
coast late tonight or early Tue morning, and reach from Mobile
Bay to the western Bay of Campeche Tue night. The front will then
slow down and weaken, and gradually dissipate Wed night into
Thu. In the wake of the cold front, strong to near gale force
north winds are expected in the far NW Gulf Tue morning, off
Tampico Tue afternoon, and off Veracruz Tue night. Fresh return
flow will develop across NW portions Thu night through Fri, ahead
of the next approaching cold front, which should move off the
Texas coast Fri night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving
across the basin.

The southern extension of of the western Atlantic sharp upper-
level trough stretches from eastern Cuba southwestward to inland
norther Nicaragua. A very moist and unstable environment east of
this trough is sustaining scattered showers and thunderstorms
over the central Caribbean south of 16N to the coast of Colombia
and between 72W-78W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are over the eastern Caribbean south of 16N between 63W-70W.
Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient is supporting generally
gentle to moderate trade winds across the basin along with
relatively low wave heights of 2-4 ft.

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the regional
Atlantic and Caribbean waters will lead to gentle to moderate
trade winds and light to moderate wave heights through Wed night.
A deep-layer trough is expected to develop across the central
Caribbean Tue through Thu and drift eastward as the tropical wave
along 54W moves westward and combines with the trough over the
eastern Caribbean by Thu. These features are likely to initiate
numerous showers and thunderstorms across the eastern half of the
basin Tue through Thu. Fresh to locally strong trade winds and
increasing east swell will move into Tropical Atlantic waters Tue
afternoon and gradually shift into the far eastern Caribbean Wed
night through Thu night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on a
tropical disturbance east of Bermuda.

A surface trough over the western Atlantic extends N to S along
72W/73W. This feature, in combination with a sharp upper-level
trough that extends from near 31N77W, south-southwestward to the
southeastern Bahamas and to eastern Cuba as seen in water vapor
imagery, is triggering clusters of scattered moderate convection
from 20N to 28N between 68W-74W. This activity is also over the
north-central section of Hispaniola and extreme eastern Cuba.
Latest ASCAT data passes depict moderate north to northeast
winds west of the trough. Wave heights with these winds are 4-6
ft. Gentle to moderate winds are east of the trough also with
wave heights of 4-6 ft.

In the central Atlantic, a rather moist and unstable atmosphere
is supporting an area of scattered moderate convection from 19N
to 30N and between 50W-57W. Gentle anticyclonic flow dominates
the area north of 20N where wave heights are in the 5-7 ft range.
In the eastern Atlantic, a cold front is just north of the area
along 32N between 20W-32W. No convection is along it, but to its
east and southeast area of rain containing possible embedded
scattered showers are noted north of 29N between 11W-20W. Gentle
to moderate northeast winds are over the eastern part of the
area around the eastern periphery of central Atlantic high
pressure. Wave heights there are of the 6-8 ft range due to a
northerly swell.

For the forecast west of 55W, the moderate convection associated
to the N to S oriented surface trough along 72W/73W will
continue tonight into Tue. The trough will drift slowly eastward
and reorganize along along 70W Tue through Thu. Low pressure is
expected to develop near 29N70W by Thu night.


$$
Aguirre
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