[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201104
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Oct 20 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 34W from
04N to 16N. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Numerous moderate
to isolated strong convection from 02N to 10N between 31W-37W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends from 23N46W to 16N45W to
10N44W. It is moving westward from 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is noted within 240 nm east of the
wave from 18N to 23N. Scattered moderate is east of the wave
within 30 nm of 17N43W. An overnight ASCAT pass revealed fresh
to strong east to southeast winds east of the wave from 19N to
23N. Wave heights with these winds are in the 8-9 ft range.

A western Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 57W from 04N
to 18N, moving westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are from 13N to 18N between 53W-57W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 86W south of 17N, moving
westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is over
western Honduras.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis passes through the coastal plains of
Senegal and Mauritania along 16N to 17N22W, where latest
scatterometer data indicated that it transitions to the
ITCZ to extends from 10N27W to 05N40W to 05N50W to 04N57W.
Aside from convection associated to the tropical wave along
34W, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
from 03N to 09N between 24W-31W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure is continuing to builds over the area. The earlier
gale force northwest to north winds in the far southwestern Gulf,
south of 21N west of 95W, have diminished to fresh to strong
winds per a recent ship observation in that area. Seas of 9-12 ft
there will slowly subside today. A cold air mass filtering across
the Gulf in combination with relatively warm sea surface
temperatures is resulting stratocumulus type clouds over the Gulf
south of about 28N. Isolated showers are possible over the
southeastern Gulf and Straits of Florida.

Moderate to fresh northerly wind speeds are elsewhere over the
Gulf outside the southwest Gulf. Wave heights are in the range of
8-11 ft elsewhere over the southwestern Gulf and 4-7 ft over the
rest of the Gulf, except for lower wave heights of 3-4 ft over
the norther part of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the high pressure over the area will shift
eastward across the northern Gulf through Sat night allowing for
fresh southerly flow to set up over the western Gulf beginning
Sat. Winds are expected to diminish slightly Mon night. A cold
front may move into the NW Gulf late Mon night followed by fresh
to strong north winds.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from east-central Cuba to inland southern
Belize. Areas of rain with embedded scattered showers and
thunderstorms are west of the front to a line from 22N82W to
20N88W. An upper-level trough extends from the central Atlantic
to the northeast part of the sea and to the northwest part of
Venezuela. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are noted north
of 13N and east of 70W.

The monsoon trough is along 10N/11N from northwestern Colombia,
westward from there to across northern Panamas and into the
eastern Pacific Ocean. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
noted along and just offshore the northwest coast of Colombia.

Wave heights range from 3-5 ft over the southeastern and south-
central sections of the sea. Lower wave heights of 2-4 ft are
over the remainder of the sea. Moderate to fresh trade winds
are east of 76W per latest ASCAT data passes, while light
to gentle trade winds are over the remainder of the sea.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will reach from
east central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras on Thu, then become
stationary on Fri as low pressure develops along the frontal
boundary northeast of the NW Bahamas. Moderate to fresh northerly
winds with moderate seas will follow the front. The front will
remain stationary on Sat while gradually weakening. Elsewhere,
gentle to moderate trade winds and slight to moderate seas are
expected during the next several days.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is analyzed from 31N70W to 25N76W to central Cuba.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are along and within about
240 nm east of the front, while broken to overcast multilayer
clouds with embedded areas of rain along with scattered showers
are west of the front to a line from 31N75W to 23N81W. To the
east, a surface trough extends from 32N44W southwest to 30N50W
and to 27N55W. A 1020 mb high pressure center is near 27N33W.
Gentle to moderate surface anticyclonic wind flow is present north
of 20N and east of 40W. Moderate to fresh trade winds are from
17N to 25N and east of 25W, and also from 06N to 24N between
25W-40W as seen in overnight ASCAT data passes. Moderate winds are
seen from 14N to 21N between 50W-60W. Light to gentle trade winds
are over the rest of Atlantic.

Wave heights are in the 7-9 ft range north of 14N and east of 40W
as seen in a recent altimeter data pass. Some wave heights in the
4-6 ft range are mixed into the same area. Wave heights of 3-5 ft
are over the remainder of the area.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will become
become stationary from near 31N69W to 27N75W and to central Cuba
this afternoon and remain through Thu. Moderate to fresh north to
northeast winds will follow the front. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are along and east of the front. Low pressure is
forecast to develop Thu along the frontal boundary NE of the NW
Bahamas. The low will lift just N of the area Fri through Sat
night. The pressure gradient between the low and high pressure
over the southeastern U.S. will allow for northeast winds over the
waters north and northwest of the Bahamas to gradually strengthen
to moderate to fresh speeds during the weekend.

$$
Aguirre
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