[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152256
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Oct 16 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2245 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 31W, south of
13N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 03N to 09N and between 28W and 33W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 47W, south of
17N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the
wave axis.

A second central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 57W,
south of 18N, moving W at 15 kt. The wave is interacting with an
upper level low to the north, enhancing scattered showers within
150 nm on both sides of the wave axis.

A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 83W, south
of 20N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered showers are present near the
wave axis mainly S of 18N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W and continues west-southwestward to
08N41W. Aside from the convection described in the tropical waves
section above, scattered moderate convection is noted within 200
nm on either side of the boundary.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Scattered showers over the central Bay of Campeche is associated
with the remnants of former Tropical Storm Karl. Mariners in the
area can expect moderate to fresh winds and seas of 4-6 ft.
Farther north and east, a weak stationary front extends from
28N83W to 26N92W. Scattered showers are noted south of the
frontal boundary affecting the SE Gulf waters including the
Straits of Florida. The remainder of the basin enjoys fairly
tranquil weather conditions thanks to a dry continental airmass.
Light to locally moderate easterly winds and seas of 2-4 ft
are noted in the area.

For the forecast, the remnants of Karl will dissipate over the
Bay of Campeche tonight. The stationary front will dissipate this
evening. A cold front will enter the NW Gulf Mon, preceded by
scattered showers and thunderstorms. This front will bring strong
winds to much of the western Gulf Tue into Wed night. Northerly
gales are possible Wed offshore Veracruz, Mexico. The cold front
will move SE of the basin Wed night into Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the tropical waves section for information about the
tropical wave in the Caribbean.

A line of showers and a thunderstorm or two are found stretching
from NW Colombia to 14N82W. Farther north, a few showers are found
in the lee of central and eastern Cuba, likely associated with a
surface trough north of the island and divergence aloft. The rest
of the Caribbean is dominated by a weak high pressure regime and
favorable marine conditions. Moderate to fresh easterly trade
winds are present in the central Caribbean, along with seas of 3-6
ft. Elsewhere, light to moderate trades and seas of 2-4 ft are
prevalent.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate
seas will persist across most areas of the Caribbean through Sun
and diminish to light to gentle wind speeds Sun night into Thu. A
cold front is forecast to reach the Yucatan Channel Thu along with
moderate to fresh northerly winds and moderate seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from a low pressure south of New England to
31N72W to the Treasure Coast of Florida near 27N80W. Ahead of the
front, a surface trough extends from 31N69W to 23N78W. Scattered
moderate convection prevails N of 24N and between 64W and 72W.
Moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 2-4 ft are occurring W of
the surface trough. The rest of the western Atlantic, W of 55W,
enjoys fairly tranquil weather conditions, light to gentle
anticyclonic winds and seas of 2-4 ft.

In the central Atlantic, a surface trough extends along 31N
between 48W-56W. Scattered moderate convection prevails N of 27N
between 47W-53W. To the east, another surface trough is analyzed
from 28N37W to 24N34W with no significant convection at this
time. The remainder of the Atlantic is dominated by a strong high
pressure positioned near Newfoundland. Moderate to fresh easterly
winds are noted from 10N to 23N and between 27W to 47W. Seas in
these waters are 5-7 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
2-5 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will
slide east through the weekend, then stall Mon from Bermuda to the
Bahamas, before dissipating early next week. Another cold front
will move offshore the SE U.S. Tue, then reach from Bermuda to the
Bahamas Wed.

$$
ERA
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