[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151040
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Oct 15 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl is centered near 18.6N 93.0W at
15/0900 UTC or 70 nm W of Ciudad Del Carmen Mexico moving SW at
4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Peak seas are 9
ft. Scattered moderate convection is from 19N to 21N between 92W
and 93.5W. A southwestward to west-southwestward motion is
expected today, and the center of the low should move along the
coast of southern Mexico this morning, and inland by later today.
Additional weakening is forecast, and the low is expected to
dissipate tonight. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends along 30W, from 02N to 13N, moving west
at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 12N between
23W and 37W. This tropical wave has a low probability of tropical
cyclone formation through both 48 hours and 5 days.

A tropical wave extends along 44W from 04N to 16N, moving west at
10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 09N to 14N,
between 38W and 45W.

A tropical wave extends along 52W, from 05N to 18N, moving west
at 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 06N to
10N, between 53W and 60W.

A tropical wave extends along 80W, from 09N to 19N, moving west
at 5 kt. Isolated convection over NE Honduras and Jamaica offshore
waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W
to 07N38W. All significant convection along this boundary is
associated with the eastern Atlantic tropical wave described
above.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section above for information
about Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl, which is in the Bay of
Campeche.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl near 18.6N 93.0W 1007 mb at 5 AM EDT
moving SW at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds 25 kt gusts 35 kt.
Outside of the Bay of Campeche, a stationary front extending from
the Tampa Bay area to the nort-central basin near 27N90W is
supporting scattered showers in the SE gulf. Otherwise, winds are
gentle to moderate N of 22N from the east E of 90W and east-
southeast W of 90W. Seas are 3-4 ft N of 22N.

For the forecast, Karl will become a remnant low and move to
18.3N 93.9W this afternoon, and dissipate Sun morning. Elsewhere,
the stationary front will dissipate Sun. A stronger cold front is
expected to enter the northwest Gulf Mon preceded by scattered
showers and thunderstorms. This next front is likely to reach the
far southeastern Gulf late Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the tropical waves section for information about the
tropical wave in the Caribbean.

A weak pressure gradient continue to support gentle to moderate
trades and 3-4 ft seas across most of the basin, except in the
south-central Caribbean where winds are locally fresh and seas are
5-6 ft.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate
seas will persist across most areas of the Caribbean through Sun
and diminish to light to gentle wind speeds Sun night into Wed
night. A cold front is forecast to reach the Yucatan Channel Wed
night along with fresh to locally strong northerly winds and
moderate seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

A middle to upper level trough supports a cold front from 31N73W
SW to Freeport northern offshore waters where it transitions to a
stationary front that continues to Cape Canaveral, Florida.
Moderate N to NE winds follow this front. Ahead of the front, a
surface trough extends from 31N67W SW to the central Bahamas,
which is generating scattered moderate convection N of 20N between
62W and 76W. The remainder central and eastern subtropical
Atlantic is under the influence of surface ridging, which is
providing for mainly moderate NE to E winds and seas to 6 ft E of
50W.

For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front across the
offshore waters N of Freeport Island in the Bahamas will
transition back to a cold front this morning, reach from Bermuda
to Andros Island in the evening and then stall from SE of Bermuda
to NE of the Turks and Caicos Sun night, before gradually
dissipating early next week. Another cold front will move offshore
the SE U.S. Mon night, then reach from 31N73W to the Florida
Straits Tue night.

$$
Ramos
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