[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141201
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...UPDATED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Oct 14 2022

Updated to include the 1200 UTC Intermediate Advisory for
Tropical Storm Karl

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1020 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Karl is centered near 19.9N 92.3W at 14/1200 UTC
or 78 nm NNW of Ciudad Del Carmen Mexico moving SE at 5 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous moderate to
strong convection is observed is S of 22N, E of 94W. Peak seas are
13 ft in the southern semicircle. Karl is expected
to turn southward or south-southwestward over the Bay of Campeche
later today, and this motion should continue through early Saturday.
On the forecast track, the center of Karl should reach the coast of
southern Mexico late tonight or early Saturday. Little change in
strength is expected before the center of Karl reaches the coast.
Steady weakening is expected after the storm crosses the
coastline, and the system is forecast to dissipate over southern
Mexico by Saturday night. Please, read the latest NHC Public
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml, and the
latest Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml,for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends along 25W from 02N to 16N moving west at
15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 02N to 13N,
between 20W and 30W. Environmental conditions appear marginally
conducive for some gradual development during the next few days
while the system moves westward and then west-northwestward.
However, the disturbance is expected to move into a less favorable
area of stronger upper-level winds by early next week. There is
currently a low probability of formation through both 48 hours and
5 days.

A tropical wave extends along 39W, from 03N to 16N, moving W at
10 kt. Associated convection is isolated and weak.

A tropical wave extends along 50W, from 04N to 19N, moving W at 5
kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 05N to 20N,
between 42W and 52W.

A tropical wave extends along 74W and S of 18N into NW Colombia,
moving W at 5 kts. Scattered moderate convection associated with
the wave is in the central Caribbean between 72W and 80W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N15W to 05N35W. See the tropical
waves section for information regarding convection.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information
about Tropical Storm Karl, which is in the Bay of Campeche.

Tropical Storm Karl near 20.2N 92.4W 1001 mb at 5 AM EDT moving
SE at 5 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt. Outside of
T.S. Karl, the other main feature in the basin is a cold front
that extends over the northern Gulf from Cedar Key, Florida to
Houston, Texas, which lacks significant convection. In terms of
winds and seas, except for the SW Gulf, gentle to locally moderate
N to NE winds dominate the basin with seas in the 3-5 ft range.

For the forecast, Karl will move to 19.5N 92.4W this afternoon,
18.6N 92.8W Sat morning, move inland and weaken to a tropical
depression near 17.7N 93.4W Sat afternoon, and dissipate Sun
morning. Elsewhere, the cold front will move across the central
Gulf today and tonight and stall from the Straits of Florida to
the Yucatan Channel Sat through Sun night before dissipating by
late Mon. A stronger cold front is expected to enter the northwest
Gulf Mon night preceded by scattered showers and thunderstorms.
This next front may reach the far southeastern Gulf late on Tue.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave
moving across the basin.

A tropical wave moving across the central Caribbean is generating
scattered showers and tstms in the Windward passage, Jamaica
adjacent waters as well as Panama and Colombia offshore waters
while the outer rainbands of T.S. Karl in the Gulf of Mexico
support similar convection in the Yucatan channel and portions of
the far NW basin. Otherwise, a relatively weak pressure gradient
is resulting in gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate
seas across the basin.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate
seas will persist across most areas of the Caribbean through Sun
and diminish to light to gentle wind speeds Sun night into Tue
night. A weak cold front will stall near the Yucatan Channel Sat
through Sun night and dissipate by late Mon.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

A cold front is moving off the coast of northeast Florida. Deep
layered diffluent flow is supporting scattered showers and tsms
ahead of the front and across the Bahamas, including the offshore
waters N and NE of Freeport. The remainder subtropical Atlantic
waters is under the influence of a surface ridge, which is
supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds E of 50W along with
seas to 7 ft. West of 50W winds are light to gentle and variable.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will continue
southeastward and reach from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by
Sat night, then become mostly stationary along 24N Sun before
dissipating through late Mon. Another cold front will move over
the waters east of northern Florida Mon and Mon night, reach from
near 31N76W to Vero Beach, Florida Tue morning and from near
31N73W to South Florida late Tue.

$$
Ramos/Mahoney
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