[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140939
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Oct 14 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1050 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Karl is centered near 20.2N 92.4W at 14/0900 UTC
or 100 nm NNW of Ciudad Del Carmen Mexico moving SE at 5 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous moderate to
strong convection is observed is S of 22N, E of 94W. Peak seas are
13 ft in the southern semicircle. Karl is expected to turn
southward or south-southwestward over the Bay of Campeche later
today, and this motion should continue through early Saturday. On
the forecast track, the center of Karl should reach the coast of
southern Mexico late tonight or early Saturday. Little change in
strength is expected before the center of Karl reaches the coast.
Steady weakening is expected after the storm crosses the
coastline, and the system is forecast to dissipate over southern
Mexico by Saturday night. Please, read the latest NHC Public
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml, and the
latest Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml,for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 23W from 02N to
16N moving west at 10 kt. A 1011 mb low is analyzed along the wave
near 08N23W. Numerous moderate with isolated strong convection is
observed from 07N to 10N, between 23W and 28W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed from 02N to 08N, between 20W and 24W and a
recent scatterometer pass also found fresh to strong southerly
winds in this area. Environmental conditions appear marginally
conducive for some slow development during the next few days while
the system moves westward and then west-northwestward at about 10
kt. There is currently a low probability of formation through
both 48 hours and 5 days.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 39W, from 03N to
16N, moving W at 10 kt. While the associated convection is
isolated and weak, a recent scatterometer pass found moderate to
locally fresh winds near the northern end of the wave.

Another central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 50W, from 02N
to 18N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 08N to 18N, between 41W and 51W. This wave has been
relocated a couple hundred miles farther east from the previous
analysis due to a scatterometer pass confirming a pronounced
shift in the surface winds.

A central Caribbean tropical wave extends along 74W from Haiti to
Colombia, moving W at 10 kts. The majority of the convection is
over Colombia and the coastal waters near the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N15W to 05N41W. Convection is
weak other than the areas associated with tropical waves discussed
above.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information
about Tropical Storm Karl, which is in the Bay of Campeche.

Outside of T.S. Karl, surface ridging from the north and east is
interrupted by lower pressure and disturbed weather over Florida.
Scattered moderate convection is observed from 23N to 27N, east of
88W. Winds are moderate north of 26N and east of 87W, and fresh to
strong closer to Karl. Wave heights are elevated due to swell
from Karl. Expect moderate heights in the western Gulf and slight
seas with a longer period in the NE Gulf.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Karl near 20.6N 92.8W 998 mb at 11 PM
EDT moving SE at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts 50 kt.
Karl will move to 19.9N 92.6W Fri morning, 19.0N 92.8W Fri
evening, move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near
18.0N 93.4W Sat morning, and dissipate Sat evening. Elsewhere, a
cold front will drop southward over the far northern Gulf by late
tonight, then move across the central Gulf Fri and Fri night and
stall from the Straits of Florida to vicinity Yucatan Channel Sat
through Sun night before dissipating by late Mon. A stronger cold
front is expected to enter the northwest Gulf Mon night preceded
by scattered showers and thunderstorms. This next front may reach
the far southeastern Gulf late on Tue.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave
moving across the basin.

Moderate to fresh trade winds are pulsing off the coast of Colombia
and Venezuela. Elsewhere, a relatively weak pressure gradient is
resulting in gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas
across the basin. No significant convection is noted across the
basin at this time.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate
seas will persist across most areas of the Caribbean into early
next week. A weak cold front will stall near the Yucatan Channel
Sat through Sun night and dissipate by late Mon. A cold front may
approach the NW Caribbean Tue night into Wed.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

A recent scatterometer pass revealed a N-S oriented surface
trough in the western Atlantic along 80W with another E-W oriented
trough through the Florida Straits. These disturbances are
supporting scattered moderate convection over a large portion of
the western Atlantic from 21N to 31N, between 66W and 81W. Winds
in this area are mainly moderate and generally from the SW to SE
outside of thunderstorms, with 3-6 ft seas. In the central
Atlantic a pair of parallel NE-SW oriented surface troughs are
supporting scattered moderate convection from 22N to 31N, between
45W and 56W. Otherwise, winds are moderate to fresh from the E to
SE with 5-7 seas. In the eastern Atlantic, fresh NE to E winds
are generating 6-8 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front will move off the
coast of northeast Florida tonight. The front will continue
southeastward and reach from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by
Sat night, then become mostly stationary along 24N Sun before
dissipating through late Mon. Another cold front will move over
the waters east of northern Florida Mon and Mon night, reach from
near 31N76W to Vero Beach, Florida Tue morning and from near
31N73W to South Florida late Tue.

$$
Ramos
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