[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT44 KNHC 130835
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Karl Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142022
400 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022

Karl has become less organized since the last advisory due to the
effects of increasing northwesterly vertical wind shear.  The
central convection has decreased, and the strongest convection is
now occurring in a band well east of the center.  Surface wind
estimates received from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft since the last advisory were in the 40-45 kt range, and
recently-received scatterometer data showed no winds higher than 40
kt.  In addition, the last aircraft-reported central pressure had
risen to 1002 mb.  Based on these data, the initial intensity is
reduced to 45 kt.

Karl remains nearly stationary.  A mid-level ridge located over
west-central Mexico and a high-amplitude mid-latitude trough over
the eastern United States are expected to impart northerly or
northwesterly flow over Karl today, which should push the cyclone
southeastward and southward into the Bay of Campeche during the
next couple of days.  A turn toward the southwest could occur near
the end of the forecast period as the steering flow becomes more
northeasterly.  The guidance has changed little since the previous
advisory, and the new forecast track has only minor adjustments
from the previous forecast.  The new track shows the center of Karl
reaching the Mexican coast in Tabasco or Veracruz states by Saturday
morning.

A combination of northwesterly vertical wind shear and dry air
entrainment should cause Karl to gradually weaken during the next
couple of days, and the new intensity forecast shows a little more
weakening before the cyclone makes landfall.  This part of the
intensity forecast lies near the upper edge of the intensity
guidance.  After landfall, quick weakening is expected, with Karl
forecast to become a depression by 60 h, a remnant low by 72 h, and
dissipate by 96 h.  The new intensity forecast has some minor
adjustments from the previous forecast due to the reduced initial
intensity.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall associated with Karl could produce instances of
flash flooding, with mudslides in areas of higher terrain, across
portions of Veracruz, Tabasco, Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in
Mexico beginning late Friday or early Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/0900Z 22.4N  94.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  13/1800Z 21.7N  93.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  14/0600Z 20.7N  93.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  14/1800Z 19.7N  93.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  15/0600Z 18.7N  93.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  15/1800Z 17.4N  94.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 72H  16/0600Z 16.4N  95.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  17/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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