[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100545
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Oct 10 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0525 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 24W, south
of 18N, moving W at 10 kt. Only isolated weak showers are present
near the trough axis.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 48W, south of
17N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted within 200 nm on either side of the wave from
09N to 14N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 14N17W to 07N24W. The ITCZ extends from 07N24W to
08N40W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
observed on satellite imagery from 06N to 10N and between 28W and
40W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from near Sarasota, Florida to 25N93W.
Divergence aloft and a moisture-rich environment support a few
showers over the SE Gulf of Mexico. The rest of the Gulf is
dominated by a broad ridge positioned over the eastern and south-
central United States. The pressure gradient between the ridge and
lower pressures in Central America, primarily associated with
Tropical Storm Julia, sustain fresh to strong NE-N winds across
most of the Gulf. The strongest winds are found north of the
Yucatan Peninsula and offshore Veracruz. Seas of 4-7 ft are
occurring over most of the Gulf, except for 2-4 ft found within
100 nm of the northern, eastern and western coasts. A recent
altimeter satellite pass captured seas up to 7 ft near 24N90W and
localized 9 ft off Veracruz.

For the forecast, the aforementioned stationary front will
persist over the eastern Gulf through late Mon then dissipate.
Expect mainly moderate to fresh NE winds across much of the basin
through late Tue as the pressure gradient tightens between high
pressure across the Gulf region and lower pressure across the
eastern Pacific. Fresh to strong NW winds and moderate to rough
seas will persist over the far southwest Gulf off the coast of
Veracruz, Mexico through Tue. Looking ahead, another front will
move into the northwest Gulf early Thu, and extending across the
central Gulf Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Tropical Storm Julia has moved into the Eastern Pacific and it is
currently located near the coast of El Salvador. An outer rainband
continues to generate a large area of showers and thunderstorms
over the western Caribbean, mainly confined S of 20N and W of
81W. The pressure gradient between the high pressure system over
the United States and Julia allows for fresh to strong E-SE winds
in the waters of the Gulf of Honduras and off the coast of
Nicaragua. This was confirmed by a recent scatterometer satellite
pass. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft, with the highest seas
occurring in the Gulf of Honduras. Heavy rainfall is expected to
continue to affect SE Mexico and western Central America during
the next few days. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides across Central America through today. Flash
flooding is anticipated across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in
Mexico early this week.

In the eastern Caribbean Sea, an upper level low is centered south
of the Virgin Islands and a surface trough extends from 20N61W to
15N65W. The interaction of these features and abundant tropical
moisture continue to enhance the development of showers and
isolated thunderstorms, mainly across the NE Caribbean, and also
affecting the neighboring islands. Moderate to fresh easterly
trade winds are noted on the latest scatterometer satellite data
across the remainder of the Caribbean Sea outside of the influence
of Julia. Seas in these waters are 3-5 ft.

For the forecast, squalls on the periphery of Tropical Storm Julia, now
over the eastern Pacific, will bring strong winds and occasional
rough seas to portions of the far northwest Caribbean west of
85W through Mon night. Farther east, fresh winds impacting the
northern Windward Passage following a trough moving through Cuba
will diminish through early Mon. Fresh to occasionally strong
trade winds pulsing near the coast over the south-central
Caribbean will diminish by mid week as a weak tropical wave
enters the region. Elsewhere, moderate winds and seas will
diminish across the basin by late week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak stationary front extends from 31N75W to the Space Coast of
Florida, while a dissipating stationary front meanders the waters
of the western tropical Atlantic from 31N68W to the NW Bahamas and
SE Florida. Divergence aloft and a moisture-laden environment
support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within 100 nm
of these boundaries. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are found S
of 25N and W of 55W, with seas of 3-5 ft. In the rest of the
tropical Atlantic W of 55W, light to gentle winds and seas of 2-4
ft are prevalent. Scattered showers are affecting the waters
east of the Lesser Antilles, mainly from 11N and 17N and W of 55W.

In the north-central Atlantic, a surface trough is noted from
31N47W to 24N52W, while a stationary upper level low is seen near
25N53W. Widely scattered showers are occurring N of 22N and
between 44W and 58W. The remainder of the basin is dominated by an
expansive subtropical ridge positioned near 35N36W. The pressure
gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics
sustain moderate to locally strong easterly winds from 08N to 27N
and between 30W and 53W. Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas
are prevalent.

For the forecast W of 55W, jet activity aloft is supporting
scattered showers and thunderstorms along a dissipating
stationary front from the northern Bahamas to Bermuda. Farther
north, another frontal boundary from 31N75W to east-central
Florida will dissipate as it lifts north through mid week. Looking
ahead, a cold front will move off the coast of northeast Florida
late Thu, and reach from Bermuda to eastern Cuba by Fri night to
early Sat morning.

$$
DELGADO
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