[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081604
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Oct 8 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Julia is centered near 12.6N 79.9W at 08/1500 UTC
or 100 nm ESE of Isla De Providencia Colombia moving W at 18 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Numerous strong
thunderstorms are noted within about 90 nm of the center with
scattered moderate to strong convection extending up to 360 nm
from the center in outer rain bands. Tropical storm force winds
extend up to 90 nm on in the NE quadrant. Seas 12 ft or greater
are expected within 120 nm in the NE quadrant, 45 nm in the SE
quadrant, 30 nm in the SW quadrant and 90 nm in the NW quadrant.
The peak seas near the center are estimated at 19 ft. Julia is
expected to intensify to a hurricane later today as the center
moves near San Andres and Providencia Islands before a landfall in
Nicaragua early Sunday morning. The potential for regeneration in
the Pacific is increasing, and coastal tropical storm watches and
warnings have been issued for parts of the Central American
Pacific coast. Rain will soon begin to fall over coastal
Nicaragua, with storm totals of 12-16 inches possible near the
landfall location. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides
are expected across portions of Central America this weekend.
Please consult products from your local weather office and read
the latest NHC Public Advisory and Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 39W, from the
equator to 14N, moving W at 12 kt. Isolated moderate convection is
observed from 01N to 07N, between 39W and 45W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N15W to
07N18N. The ITCZ continues from 07N18W to 05N38W where the
convergent flow is interrupted by a tropical wave. The ITCZ
continues west of the wave from 04N42W to 02N51W along the NE
coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate convection is observed from
02N to 08N, between 18W and 38W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The gradient between high pressure ridging over the Gulf and
Tropical Storm Julia in the SW Caribbean is supporting moderate to
locally fresh NE winds across the basin with 2-4 ft seas, on a
building trend.

For the forecast, a cold front is expected to reach the northern
Gulf waters later this morning, move across the central Gulf
through late today, then stall over the southeastern Gulf and
Straits of Florida Sun before dissipating Mon. Expect increasing
NE winds across much of the basin Sun afternoon through late Mon
as the pressure gradient tightens between high pressure across the
Gulf region and lower pressure in the western Caribbean. Looking
ahead, winds and seas will diminish across the Gulf through mid
week, except for occasional strong NW winds and rough seas over
the far southwest Gulf off the coast of Veracruz, Mexico.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for more details on
Tropical Storm Julia in the southwest Caribbean Sea.

Marine impacts from Tropical Storm Julia extend throughout the
majority of the basin, with the exception of the far eastern
Caribbean where conditions are moderate. In the central Caribbean
winds are fresh from the east with an abating swell to 8 ft from
Julia's passage yesterday. In the NW Caribbean, winds are fresh
from the NE with 4-6 ft seas on a building trend.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Julia near 12.6N 79.9W 994 mb at 11
AM EDT moving W at 18 kt. Maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65
kt. Julia will strengthen to a hurricane near 12.5N 81.9W this
evening, move inland to 12.5N 84.3W Sun morning, move inland and
weaken to a tropical storm near 12.7N 86.9W Sun evening, weaken
to a tropical depression near 13.2N 89.5W Mon morning, become a
remnant low and move to 13.7N 91.9W Mon evening, and dissipate
Tue morning. Strong winds and rough seas will persist over the
northwest Caribbean through Mon, then diminish. Looking ahead,
expect moderate winds and seas across the basin by mid week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

In the western Atlantic, a stationary front extends from 31N62W,
across the northern Bahamas to 25N80W near south Florida. Weak
showers and moderate to fresh winds are noted within 60 nm of the
boundary. Otherwise, gentle to moderate E-NE winds and 3-6 ft
seas dominate the sub-basin. In the central Atlantic, subtropical
high pressure north of the area is supporting mainly moderate to
fresh easterly wind with 5-8 ft seas. The eastern Atlantic is
dominated by moderate to fresh NE wind and 5-8 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front extends from
near 31N61W to 28N70W to the northern Bahamas. The front will
linger over the area, and dissipate by late today just ahead of
another cold front moving off the northeast Florida coast tonight.
The second front will sweep southeastward, stall from near
Bermuda to South Florida Sun, then will weaken through Tue.
Looking ahead, another weak cold front will move into the waters
north of 29N late Tue and Wed.

$$
Flynn
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net