[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051548
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Oct 5 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Twelve...
As of 05/1500 UTC, Tropical Depression Twelve is centered near
15.6N 32.0W or about 460 nm west of the Cabo Verde Islands. It is
moving WNW at 8 kt, with an estimated minimum central pressure of
1007 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt.
Combined seas are in the 8-11 ft range near and north of the
center. Satellite imagery shows that the depression is losing
organization and now has an exposed low-level center displaced
from the associated deep convection due to strong WSW shear. The
current forecast indicates that the depression will become a
remnant low in the next 24 hours. Please read the latest High
Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France at website
http://weather.gmdss.org/ll.html and the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml and
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml for more details.

Tropical Wave/Broad Low Pressure...
A tropical wave crossed the Windward Islands this morning and is
now in the far eastern Caribbean along 62W from the coast of
Venezuela to 17N. A 1007 mb low pressure center is analyzed along
the wave near the southern Windward Islands at 11.5N 61.7W. Fresh
to strong easterly winds are observed north of the low, with seas
to 9 ft. This system is moving westward around 15 kt. While the
system has not become any better organized since yesterday, upper-
level winds are forecast to become more conductive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the
next several days if the system remains over water. Regardless of
development, 2-4" of rainfall and strong winds are expected to
impact the southern Windward Islands today before moving to the
northern coast of South America and southern Caribbean Islands
over the next few days. There is a medium chance of tropical
cyclone development over the next 48 hours and a high chance
through 5 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather
Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W
to 12N24W, where the convergent flow is interrupted by Tropical
Depression Twelve. The monsoon trough continues southwest of TD12
from 13N33W to 08N72W. The ITCZ continues from 08N72W to 05N53W
along the coast of French Guiana. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 08N to 12N, between 34W and 43W.

The eastern segment of the East Pacific monsoon trough extends
across the SW Caribbean and is triggering scattered moderate with
isolated strong convection within 120 nm from the coast of Costa
Rica, Panama and NW Colombia.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Overall, the Gulf of Mexico is under the influence of weak high
pressure and favorable marine conditions. A NW-SE oriented
surface trough extends from near Houston to the central Gulf of
Mexico. NE of this trough, winds are gentle to moderate from the E
with 2-3 ft seas. SW of the trough, winds are light to gentle
from the NE with 1-2 ft seas. A cold front extends through the
Florida Straits, with scattered weak showers along portions of the
boundary.

For the forecast, the tail end of a cold front extends across the
Florida Straits along 24N and E of 86W with scattered showers.
The front will drift south through the end of the week, then stall
and dissipate by late Sat. High pressure north of the area will
maintain gentle to moderate easterly winds and slight to moderate
seas through Thu. Another cold front is expected to move into the
northern Gulf Fri, the central Gulf Sat and the southeastern Gulf
and Straits of Florida Sun and Sun night, then stall. Expect fresh
northeast to east winds across the southeastern Gulf starting Fri
and through Sun night as the pressure gradient tightens between
high pressure north of the fronts and lower pressure in the
western Caribbean.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for more details on the
tropical wave and associated broad low pressure area located near
the southern Windward Islands.

Outside of impacts from the tropical wave, the gradient between
subtropical high pressure and lower pressure over South America is
supporting moderate easterly winds in the central and eastern
Caribbean, with 3-5 ft seas. The gradient relaxes in the western
Caribbean with gentle winds and 2-4 ft seas.

For the forecast, a broad area of low pressure located near the
southern Windward Islands continues to produce a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Regardless of development,
heavy rainfall with localized flooding, as well as gusty winds to
gale force, are expected over portions of the Windward Islands,
northern portions of South America, and the ABC Islands during the
next couple of days. Interests in those locations, in addition to
those in Central America, should continue to monitor the progress
of this system. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate northeast winds
slight to moderate seas are expected across the basin through late
Fri, except for winds increasing to moderate to fresh over most
of the western Caribbean Fri through Sun night as the pressure
gradient tightens between the low pressure area and strong high
pressure north of the Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details on Tropical
Depression Twelve in the eastern Atlantic Basin.

A mostly dry cold front is analyzed from 31N67W, across the
northern Bahamas to the Florida Straits. Behind the front winds
are moderate from the north with 5-7 ft seas, some of which is
swell from a mid-Atlantic storm. Ahead of the front, winds are
gentle from the W with 5-7 ft seas. East of 65W, winds are
moderate from the S with 5-7 ft seas. In the central Atlantic,
high pressure north of the area is the dominate feature with
moderate easterly winds and 4-6 ft seas. A tighter pressure
gradient in the eastern Atlantic is causing fresh to strong NE
winds and 6-8 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front that extends from near
31N68W to 24N79W will stall from near Bermuda to the southern
Bahamas and the Straits of Florida Fri. The front will dissipate
by late Sat. Another cold front will sweep southeastward reaching
from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas and to vicinity South
Florida and the Straits of Florida Sun and also stall. Expect for
northeast winds to increase to fresh speeds over the southwest
part of the area and Straits of Florida starting late Thu as the
gradient tightens between the fronts and strong high pressure to
the north of them. Seas to 8 ft in northeast swell north of the
Bahamas and east of northeast Florida will subside by this
afternoon.

$$
Flynn
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